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Tennessee Titans place kicker Stephen Gostkowski (3) kicks a go-ahead field goal late in the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos during the second half of an NFL football game, Monday, Sept.. 14, 2020, in Denver.
Thursday, Sept. 17, 2020 | 2 a.m.
At least Tennessee Titans kicker Stephen Gostkowski supplied a lesson to go along with the heartache he inflicted to conclude the NFL’s Week 1.
Gostkowski’s three missed field goals doomed the first NFL pick’em column of the year to a losing record on plays, but in his defense, the Titans should have never been a play in the first place. I made Tennessee -2.5 my final play with the caveat that the Titans were, “the best bet on the board earlier this week at a plus price until steam moved the spread as much as 4.5 points.”
Losing by a half point, as the Titans defeated the Broncos 16-14 in the end, served me right. Taking bad numbers — or ones that are much worse than they were a few days prior — is the most avoidable mistake a gambler make. I justified this particular instance because the move from +2 to -2.5 doesn’t pass through any key numbers, but it still makes for a significant loss of win probability.
It still was a bad bet. Luckily, the rest of the slate went pretty well and I opened the season with a 9-6-1 against the spread record picking every game. I’d be thrilled with that pace all year, assuming I can reassign some of the wins to the plays section. The improvement can start by being more selective with numbers.
Read below for picks on every Week 2 game, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
Plays (2-4)
Detroit Lions +6 at Green Bay Packers Monitor the statuses of Lions’ cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant, but if they remain on track to play and shore up an injury cluster, then this is a steal. A few big plays and elongated drives concealed many of Green Bay’s flaws in a 43-34 win over Minnesota as 1-point underdogs to start the season.
Seattle Seahawks -4 vs. New England Patriots If the Seahawks are really going to “let Russ cook” all season, as segments of social media have advocated for them to unleash quarterback Russell Wilson more often, then they’re going to be tough to beat. Seattle threw on 65.5 percent of its snaps in a 38-25 win over Atlanta as closing 1-point underdogs, an approach that could be advantageous against a Patriots defense that’s still missing several key contributors.
Indianapolis Colts -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings I’m not ready to write off the Colts after one upset loss, let alone one where they didn’t punt and posted a net 1.3 yards per play — second best in the NFL. The Vikings may also not be as bad as they’re being accused after an 0-1 start, but they’re younger and need more time to sort through their issues, namely in the secondary.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Tampa’s defense is a significant upgrade from the Las Vegas unit that Carolina lit up for 6 yards per play in Week 1. And the Panthers’ defense is a sieve with significantly more holes than the Saints’ unit that limited the Buccaneers to 4.8 yards per play in Week 1. Grab this number before it closes at -10.
Leans (3-0-1)
Los Angeles Rams +1 at Philadelphia Eagles New season, same story: The Eagles are hindered by a long injury list. Their cluster injuries on both the offensive and defensive lines look particularly damaging in this matchup.
Buffalo Bills -5.5 at Miami Dolphins The Dolphins are conspicuously absent in conversations about the worst teams in the NFL, and they shouldn’t be. I’m continuing to fade Miami until the market reflects the reality of its current situation and not on last year’s misleading, late-season rush to respectability.
New York Giants +6 at Chicago Bears It would require a trip to Treasure Island to acquire this number considering the property shut down its mobile betting app, but it might just be worth it. It appears to be the only place globally still dealing a key number that’s extra valuable in a game where there shouldn’t be many points.
Las Vegas Raiders +6 vs. New Orleans Saints The Saints’ offense quietly struggled in a season-opening 34-23 victory over the Buccaneers as a 4-point favorite, and now will be playing without top receiver Michael Thomas. There was no reason for this line to move up 1.5 points from where it sat coming into the season.
Guesses (4-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers -7 vs. Denver Broncos The Broncos’ injuries continue to pile up while the Steelers are relatively healthy apart from running back James Conner, but the drop-off to backup Benny Snell appears minimal at best. Denver may merit more serious consideration at 7.5, where this line is eventually heading, but for now, laying the touchdown is the best option.
Baltimore Ravens -7 at Houston Texans The number is right, but the Ravens are just too complete to bet against. The Texans should be able to score some points — they deserved more than 20 in a season-opening loss to the Chiefs — but their defense will likely provide minimal resistance.
Los Angeles Chargers +9 vs. Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL. The Chiefs have some issues, namely along the offensive line and in the secondary. Both can be true. Until they resolve the latter, there’s no reason to lay inflated point spreads.
Atlanta Falcons +4.5 at Dallas Cowboys For the second straight week, my preseason NFC champion pick (the Cowboys) find themselves in a game between two teams I would consider bet-on sides. For the second straight week, their price is inflated — albeit less so than when they were available at +3 at this time last week ahead of a 20-17 loss to the Rams.
Arizona Cardinals -6.5 vs. Washington Football Team Washington’s defense might turn out to be one of the best in the league this season, but its offense is undoubtedly the worst —and offense is more predictive from week to week. I can’t back a team traveling across the country that averaged 3.4 yards per play — .6 worse than any other team in the league – in its first game.
Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 at Tennessee Titans I would feel more confident with Jacksonville if this spread gets back to double-digits, but this is still a bit high for an early-season divisional game. Jay Gruden’s offense looked like a natural fit with Gardner Minshew in Week 1, as expected, and could add value to the Jaguars’ side.
New York Jets +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers The Jets weren’t nearly as bad as conventional wisdom implies in a 27-17 loss to the Bills as 6-point underdogs considering they were only outgained by .1 yards per play. That being said, and even though this spread is a point too high, there’s no way to take an Adam Gase-coached team over a Kyle Shanahan-coached team with any level of confidence.
Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Cleveland Browns A rookie quarterback on a short week or a rookie head coach on a short week? There’s truly no correct answer here. Stay away.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
