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Micale Cunningham

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Louisville quarterback Micale Cunningham (3) scrambles away from Mississippi State safety Fred Peters (38) in the first half of the Music City Bowl NCAA college football game Monday, Dec. 30, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn.

The line moves are drastic, the silence on players’ health statuses deafening and the overall quality diminished.

Such is life when it comes to college football in 2020. I warned last week of the inherent obstacles in trying to navigate a sport searching for its footing in the middle of a global pandemic, and they showed themselves to doom the first college football betting column of the year to a losing week.

Despite beating the closing line on every play and lean, my overall record picking every game was 6-7 — 2-2 on plays, 2-2 on leans and 2-3 on guesses. For the second straight week, I’ll urge caution when betting on college football, and for the second straight, I’ll probably fail to follow my own advice.

Read below for betting picks and analysis on every college football game this week, labeled with one of three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Louisiana -17 at Georgia State, over/under: 58.5. The Ragin’ Cajuns have never beaten the Panthers by this much in school history. It’s fair to pay a premium on Louisiana these days given they’ve been one of the most profitable teams in the nation since coach Billy Napier arrived, but this number is a little too inflated after its 31-14 upset victory at Iowa State as 13.5-point underdogs. Guess: Georgia State +17.

Houston +4 at Baylor, over/under: 62. There are too many variables to get involved with this game. Baylor probably has a talent edge but teams with first-year coaches like Dave Aranda have really struggled so far in college football. Houston isn’t much better on the continuity front, however, as it has massive turnover from Dana Holgorsen’s first season a year ago. Guess: Baylor -4.

Navy +7 at Tulane, over/under: 48.5. It was too little, too late to cover for us last week but Tulane looked terrific once they got into rhythm in the second half of a 27-24 win over South Alabama as 11.5-point favorites. This total is so low for a reason, though, as both teams will play deliberately and make laying a number a tough ask. Guess: Tulane -7.

Boston College +6 at Duke, over/under: 51.5. This would become a play if the number continues to climb and reaches 7 after opening at 3.5. The aforementioned troubles of first-year coaches is a real concern, as they’re 2-8 against the spread so far but that’s still a small sample and not worth this big of a move in a game between two evenly-matched teams. Lean: Boston College +6.

Tulsa +23 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 66. Oklahoma State is stacked and ranks in the nation’s top 10 in returning production. It’s a big number but feels like a stretch to expect a mediocre Tulsa defense to stop running back Chuba Hubbard and receiver Tylan Wallace enough to keep this competitive. Lean: Oklahoma State -23.

Liberty +14.5 at Western Kentucky, over/under: 52.5. A buy-order is out on Liberty considering coach Hugh Freeze has continued to upgrade the talent, including at quarterback where Auburn transfer Malik Willis will take over this season. Western Kentucky’s 35-21 loss to Louisville last week wasn’t as close as the score indicated as it was outgained by 239 yards and 2.5 yards per play. Play: Liberty +14.5.

Syracuse +21.5 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 50.5. It takes a second to get over the initial shock of seeing the Panthers lay this large of a number, but then the reality sets in: It’s wholly justified. Pittsburgh brings back its entire team while Syracuse is a mess with a dearth of personnel that can provide any explosive plays. Guess: Pittsburgh -21.5.

South Florida +26 at Notre Dame, over/under: 48. The Fighting Irish’s 27-13 win over Duke as 21.5-point favorites showed that they’re still prone to offensive droughts. They should win this game easily, but they’re not a team worth laying big point spreads behind yet. Guess: South Florida +26.

Central Florida -7.5 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 62.5. I would rather be early than be late to jumping on Georgia Tech, a program that looks renewed and dangerous under second-year coach Geoff Collins. This is an advantageous spot with the Yellow Jackets having already played a game — upsetting Florida State 16-13 as 13-point underdogs — while the Knights are debuting. Lean: Georgia Tech +7.5.

Florida Atlantic +1.5 at Georgia Southern, over/under: 47. The Owls have more talent but they’re in flux, an inexperienced team playing their game under new coach Willie Taggart. The Panthers are experienced, relatively consistent and got a tune-up — albeit not a very confidence-inducing one considering they only beat Campbell 27-26 as 29-point favorites — last week. Guess: Georgia Southern -1.5.

Appalachian State -4.5 at Marshall, over/under: 59.5. Two of the most fundamentally-sound, perennially competitive Group of Five conference programs make this a toss-up meeting. A toss-up meeting shouldn’t have this high of a line. Lean: Marshall +4.5.

Troy -3.5 at Middle Tennessee State, over/under: 65. Buy signs are on Troy as it’s due some positive regression after being better than last year’s 5-7 straight-up record indicated as it went 0-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Middle Tennessee appears to be in for a long season after its season-opening 42-0 loss at Army as 3.5-point underdogs. Play: Troy -3.5.

SMU -14 at North Texas, over/under: 68.5. No team could use a fresh start quite like North Texas, which unraveled last year following two straight promising seasons under coach Seth Littrell. The Mean Green broke in a lot of young talent last year when it became apparent they weren’t going to play up to expectations, which could be to this year’s benefit. Lean: North Texas +14.

Louisiana Tech +5 at Southern Miss, over/under: 58.5. Golden Eagles coach Jay Hopson resigned after his team’s season-opening loss to South Alabama, and yet the team might be in a better position than the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech had to cancel their opening game because of a coronavirus outbreak. This game therefore is pretty representative of the college football experience in 2020. Guess: Southern Miss -5.

Miami +2.5 at Louisville, over/under: 64.5. Louisville quarterback Micale Cunningham was highly impressive in accounting for four touchdowns in a season-opening 35-21 win over Western Kentucky, but Miami’s D’Eriq King was no slouch of his own with two scores in a 31-14 win over UAB. There’s no reason this spread should have moved more than three points in the Cardinals’ direction after opening as low as Miami -1. Play: Miami +2.5.

Texas State -5.5 at Louisiana-Monroe, over/under: 62.5. The Bobcats are 0-2, but both losses are by a touchdown or less including a 51-48 overtime setback to UTSA last week. They’re also playing with a new uptempo offense that the Warhawks could find difficult to defend. Guess: Texas State -5.5.

Wake Forest +1.5 at North Carolina State, over/under: 53. Don’t be fooled by the Demon Deacons’ relatively close 37-13 loss against Clemson last week — They still have a long way to go. And now they have to come off of a highly-physical game to take on an NC State team with more offensive returning production than anyone in the ACC. Play: NC State -1.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Article written by #LasVegasSun

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