Saturday, Sept. 19, 2020 | 7 p.m.
Week 2: Saints at Raiders
It’s time to call up the betting app or rush to the wagering window and put in some last-minute NFL plays ahead of kickoff. It’s time for the second-ever Sunday Sweats column.
For a full rundown of Talking Points’ new column, check out last week’s introduction. The gist of it is, this is meant of a fun complement to the long-running weekly pick’em piece.
Sunday Sweats lived up to that promise, and its name, in the first week with a few suspenseful close calls. Read about it all below, as I also dive into this week’s plays.
For accounting purposes, I’ll include all plays outside of the pick’em in the Sunday Sweats record and link picks that appear elsewhere. Records are attached to each individual category with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (2-1, $81.82): Chiefs at Chargers under 47.5 points (Circa Sports)
What!? Play an under in a game with one of the most efficient offenses in NFL history? Yes, play an under in a game with with one of the most efficient offenses in NFL history. Truth be told, the Chiefs’ first game — a 34-20 win over the Texans with a total of 53.5 — had no business going over. Kansas City was conservative on offense as it broke in a new-look offensive line, and I think that’s going to continue to be a trend early in the season. The Chargers, meanwhile, are going to be content to play at one of the league’s slowest paces all season. Look for something like a 24-17 final score. I’ll have one more total this week, but hint, it will have to wait for tomorrow’s Raider gameday spread.
Two-team teaser (0-1, -$100): Buccaneers -2.5 & Titans -1.5 at -125 (Circa Sports)
Let’s shoot for another textbook Wong teaser — aside from the price as, once again, -110 on two-team six-pointers is long gone locally — and hope it goes better than last week. Tampa Bay is better than Carolina at virtually every position and should have no trouble. I’m a little less enthusiastic about betting against the Jaguars, as I might be one of the only people who played an over on their win total going into the season, but they’re at as much of a disadvantage against Tennessee as Carolina is to Tampa Bay. Jacksonville may keep it close, but it’s hard to imagine them winning.
Moneyline parlay (1-0, $105): Indianapolis Colts & Baltimore Ravens to win at +108 (Circa Sports)
Second straight category where I’m using the exact same strategy as last week. The Ravens and Colts are two of my highest-rated teams in the AFC, and no, not even the Colts’ week 1 loss to the Jaguars changed that. Circa is conveniently dealing prices below the market consensus on both sides — -170 as opposed to -180 on the Colts, and -320 as opposed to -350 on the Ravens — to provide a nice plus-price on this two-teamer.
Prop-hunting (0-2, -$200): Ezekiel Elliott under 91.5 rushing yards -110 (William Hill)
I was one yard away from a $1,000 score on Henry Ruggs scoring a touchdown on his long reception last week, but instead, this category is tanking the overall record. So let’s stray from the touchdown pools — I also took a misguided shot on Christian McCaffrey to not find the end zone — and instead search for a two-way market with less variance. Falcons at Cowboys should be a shootout with a game state that isn’t advantageous to a bunch of rushing yards. Atlanta’s defense also isn’t that bad against the run, as most of its issues come in the defensive backfield.
Non-football play (1-0, $120): Denver Nuggets +7.5 vs. Los Angeles Lakers (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
The 32 free-throws the Lakers took in the first half are the talk of a 126-114 Game 1 victory. That almost surely means the whistle will be tighter for Denver in Game 2. There was no need to add an extra half-point to this spread, as Lakers -7 was at least a point high already. The Nuggets aren’t going to get blown out in the western conference finals, and they’ll start to show as much this afternoon.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 4-4, $6.82
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
