Brian Blanco / Associated Press
Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) celebrates after scoring during the second half of an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020, in Charlotte, N.C.
Monday, Sept. 21, 2020 | 2 a.m.
• Who: Saints at Raiders
• When: 5:15 p.m.
• Where: Allegiant Stadium
• Media: ESPN; ESPN 1100 Radio
• Betting Line: Saints -6, over/under 49.5
Allegiant Stadium opens in style as the roughly $2 billion venue hosts a standalone primetime game to wrap up NFL Week 2 with one of the league’s premier teams visiting the Raiders.
Few franchises have been more productive than the Saints since coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees arrived to New Orleans in 2006. They’ve made the playoffs eight times, including in each of the last three years, and won Super Bowl 44 in 2010.
That’s the type of consistency the Raiders are aspiring to as they start a new era in their home stadium. They hope “the Death Star,” as fans and owner Mark Davis are calling Allegiant Stadium, can bring one of the best homefield advantages in football once fans are allowed to fill the 65,000 seats. In the meantime, they’re aiming to christen the building with a big victory against a perennial championship contender.
Favorable matchup: Raiders rushing offense vs. Saints rush defense
It’s almost too obvious, and not expected to be particularly pronounced against the Saints, but Josh Jacobs, the Raiders’ second-year running back out of Alabama provides an edge against any opponent. He followed a highly productive inaugural season that saw him take second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting with a spectacular performance in a Week 1 win against the Carolina Panthers, racking up 139 total yards from scrimmage and three rushing touchdowns. Dating back to last season, no running back in the NFL has broken more tackles than Jacobs. New Orleans’ rush defense wasn’t particularly sharp in a season-opening victory against Tampa Bay. Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones had his moments, and the Saints were 17th in the NFL in defending the run by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
• “Derek used my wife’s name in one of his audibles. … I’m still trying to figure out why Cindy Gruden came up during the game. I’ve got to look into that.” — Coach Jon Gruden on QB Derek Carr’s creative Week 1 audible calls
• “If y’all believe Coach Gruden doesn’t know my audibles, he’s got you guys fooled. This is his offense. … That’s one of them I surprised him with last year and he enjoyed it. He said, ‘All right, that one can stick.’” — Carr
• “Looking at the stadium, it does kind of remind me of somewhere Darth Vader is going to come out of a door or something like that.” — Tight end Darren Waller on Allegiant Stadium’s “Death Star” nickname
“I honestly didn’t even know that was going on, but that’s definitely dope. You know everybody is going to be watching that.” — Jacobs on The Killers performing a halftime show on top of Caesars Palace
Problematic matchup: Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara vs. Raiders pass defense
Half of Brees’ pass attempts in Week 1 targeted either the tight end Cook or the running back Kamara, almost always within five yards of the line scrimmage. That’s exactly where the Raiders are vulnerable, especially if middle linebacker and defensive captain Nick Kwiatkoski misses the game with an injured pectoral. Linebacker Cory Littleton is capable of shutting down either Kamara or Cook on any given play, but he can’t handle them both. If Kwiatkoski is out, Nicholas Morrow and Raekwon McMillan are expected to start in coordinator Paul Guenther’s base 4-3 scheme, and they’re both more suited as run-stoppers. Against the Buccaneers, Cook and Kamara combined to haul in 10 receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown.
Gamebreaker: Guard/tackle Denzelle Good
It may seem strange to place so much emphasis on a backup offensive lineman, but the Raiders’ success could hinge on their newfound utility man of the trenches. Good, usually a guard, was pressed into action at right tackle when both Trent Brown and Sam Young went down with injuries in the first half at Carolina. He performed admirably despite the unfamiliar position, and with Brown and Young still banged up, it’s likely he’s going to have to do it again tonight. Only this time against a more hellacious pass rush. The Saints were third in the NFL in adjusted sack rate last season, with Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport forming one of the best one-two edge-rushing duos in the league. The Saints will be scheming to test Good, and the former Indianapolis Colt will need to prove up to the challenge.
New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) looks to pass while playing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020, in New Orleans.
Big number: 10,191
Brees’ career passing attempts, an NFL record. The mark, earned in Week 1, adds to his already-significant real estate in the record book, as the 41-year-old also owns records for most completions, passing yards, touchdown passes and highest completion percentage. The workload has at least somewhat taken a toll, though. Brees’ arm strength has diminished in recent years, as he’s thrown only one pass 35 yards downfield since 2017, according to ESPN Stats and Information. He remains lethal in the short-passing game, but without much of a threat of attacking far downfield, the Raiders’ scouting report on Brees is more simplified than when they last faced the Saints in 2016.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 points
The Saints’ defense is too disciplined to give up many big plays to the Raiders, and their offense is too conservative to manufacture many big plays. It’s become readily apparent that this game won’t be the shootout many expected in the offseason and the betting market has responded accordingly, with the total dropping to 49.5 after opening as high as 52. As long as it stays above 48, a key number as one of the 10 most-common point totals in NFL final scores, there’s value on the under.
