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Golden Knights Beat Vancouver Canucks 5-0

Jason Franson / The Canadian Press via AP

Golden Knights goalie Marc-Andre Fleury sits on the bench in Game 1 against the Vancouver Canucks on Sunday, Aug. 23, 2020, in Edmonton, Alberta.

The Golden Knights have never used a buyout in their three offseasons as a fully fledged team. They’ve also never had a goalie controversy in need of decision-making.

Those two occurrences could converge as soon as today when the NHL’s buyout window opens. There’s a strong possibility that seemed impossible less than a year ago: Buying out franchise icon Marc-Andre Fleury.

By all accounts, the Golden Knights seem set on extending the contract of Robin Lehner, who reportedly will receive a five-year, $5 million a year deal.

That leaves little room for Fleury, who started just four of 20 playoff games after losing his spot to Lehner, who Vegas acquired midseason from Chicago. Continuing to pay Fleury and count his salary against the cap makes little sense if Lehner is set to be the starter.

The ideal situation is to trade Fleury with the acquiring team taking on the entirety of his contract. That would free up $7 million on Vegas’ cap for the upcoming two seasons, which could be immediately reallocated to Lehner.

Vegas could also retain salary in a trade, which would keep up to half of Fleury’s cap on its books while he plays elsewhere. This would raise his trade value, as the acquiring team would get him at a lower cap number. The Golden Knights have done this in the past and still have $500,000 of Tomas Tatar’s contract on their books.

If they can’t find a taker on a trade, that leaves the Golden Knights with the nuclear option. NHL buyouts aren’t excessively complex. We break down what it would look like for Fleury, and how it would affect him and the team.

All numbers below are courtesy of CapFriendly.

How do buyouts work?

Buyouts are allowed during a certain window in the offseason. This year, the initial buyout window runs from Friday to 2 p.m. Oct. 8, the day before free agency begins. When a player is bought out, a team saves money against the player’s contract, and the player becomes an unrestricted free agent.

In most cases, a buyout allows a team to recoup a third of the remaining salary owed to a player in exchange for a cap penalty that extends beyond the current term. Currently the Golden Knights have Fleury on their cap for two more seasons. If they buy him out that would become four years, but at a lesser rate.

Fleury holds a $7 million cap hit for the next two seasons as part of a three-year, $21 million extension he signed in July 2018 and which began last season. While cap hits are determined by dividing the value of the contract by the length, salaries can fluctuate from year to year. Vegas paid Fleury an $8.5 million salary last season and owe him $12.5 million for the next two years. That number is important later on.

Because all of Fleury’s contract is made of salary with no signing bonuses, his buyout numbers are fairly straightforward as set by the league and the players union’s collective bargaining agreement, and calculated by CapFriendly’s buyout tool.

Fleury’s buyout in regard to his cap hit would be as follows:

2020-21: $2,583,333 cap hit (savings of $4,416,667)

2021-22: $3,083,333 cap hit (savings of $3,916,667)

2022-23: $2,083,333 cap hit (penalty of $2,083,333)

2023-24: $2,083,333 cap hit (penalty of $2,083,333)

Total: $9,833,332 cap hit (savings of $4,166,667)

If Fleury is bought out, he would become an unrestricted free agent while still collecting money from the Golden Knights. Essentially, Vegas can choose to pay him the full amount over two years, or pay him a lesser amount over four years to have him leave.

What a buyout would mean for the Golden Knights

In short, it means cap savings for the next years in exchange for a cap penalty in the two after that.

Saving about $4 million in cap space for the next two years would allow the Golden Knights to fit Lehner’s reported new deal in under the cap. If he does indeed make $5 million for the next five seasons, a Fleury buyout would almost cover the first two seasons of the contract. The three after that is where it gets tricky.

In two seasons, when Fleury’s current contract is up, the Golden Knights will have more cap room, when Reilly Smith, Ryan Reaves, Brayden McNabb and Nick Holden all become unrestricted free agents and bring almost $11 million off the cap. That doesn’t include the $10.5 million set to come off the books next offseason when the contracts of Paul Stastny and Alec Martinez expire. Some or all of that would be owed to the bought-out Fleury, including in 2022-23 and 2023-24 when he otherwise would no longer be receiving a paycheck.

Vegas knows the salary cap will not rise for the next two seasons, as previously announced by the league, with incremental raises in the seasons after. It’s always tricky to have dead money on the books, especially for a team like Vegas that spends to the cap every year.

But if Vegas is going to forge ahead with Lehner and can’t find a trade partner, it may be the team’s best option.

What a buyout would mean for Fleury

If Fleury is traded or remains with the Golden Knights he will make $12.5 million in salary. If he is bought out, he will make significantly less.

In the event of a buyout, Fleury will make just under $4.2 million over the next two seasons, more than an $8 million pay cut. He will, however, make another $4.2 million in 2022-23 and 2023-24, two years in which he is not currently under contract. His total buyout earnings would be just over $8.3 million over the next four years, instead of $12.5 million over two.

The upside is that he has the opportunity to earn more money. If he is bought out, he is free to sign with any team and negotiate a new contract. He’d still pocket his $4.2 million from the Golden Knights and would have an opportunity to earn money from whichever team he signs with.

For example, Kevin Shattenkirk was bought out by the Rangers last summer, dropping his 2019-20 salary from $6.6 million to just over $1.43 million. He then signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning for a $1.75 million salary, helping to recoup some of his buyout losses. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent again this offseason but will still collect over $1.43 million from the Rangers. Still a loss for Shattenkirk, but it was partially offset.

Fleury is in a similar situation. A buyout would cost Fleury about $4.2 million in earnings if he took the buyout and did not play again. He would almost certainly sign a new contract, but would need to make that $4.2 million back over the next four years to make up his buyout losses. Even then, that would total $12.5 million over four years instead of over two years, taking the chance to negotiate a new contract in 2022 with that $12.5 million already in his pocket.

A buyout, although it would cost him money, would give him more freedom. He has a 10-team list to which he can block a trade, but if the Golden Knights find a team off that list and make a deal, Fleury would be forced to go there, regardless if he wants to. A buyout would allow him to choose his team, and don’t think the Pittsburgh Penguins wouldn’t be eager to bring the prodigal son home.

Bottom line

The Golden Knights knew they were taking a risk when they signed Fleury to an extension that would carry him through his age-37 season. They built buyout protection into his contract by way of making his earning entirely from salary.

Still, no one wanted it to come to this. If the Golden Knights finalize a deal with Lehner they’re left with three options, none of which involve Fleury continuing his role as the unquestioned Golden Knights starting goalie.

They could simply keep Fleury and work on the cap issues elsewhere, reestablishing one of the league’s best tandems. They could trade Fleury. Or they could buy Fleury out.

As of this moment there is no telling which way Vegas is leaning, but if it is the buyout route, the Golden Knights’ first will be one of the most talked-about in the league in quite a while.

Article written by #LasVegasSun

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