Josie Lepe / AP
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan walks on the sideline during the second half of an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020.
Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 | 8 p.m.
Points are the talk of town as it pertains to NFL betting.
Overs have now hit in 30 of 49 NFL games to date, and the question is if they can keep cashing at such a historic rate. The easy answer is “no.”
The market always adjusts to short-term anomalies like the rash of points early this NFL season. That doesn’t mean it’s as simple as betting a bunch of unders going forward to find value.
Timing is the difficult part, as the expected regression could come this week, next week or any other week. In other words, bettors shouldn’t base their over/under handicapping on what’s happened so far.
That’s just another way to succumb to the gambler’s fallacy.
I’ve had good fortune with totals so far in this column as Sunday Sweats looks to get back to its winning ways after a slight downturn last week. The overall record is still in the black, and I intend to keep it there all year.
Read this Sunday Sweats column below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (4-2, $163.64): Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals over 49 (Stations)
After that preamble, I’ve got to take an over, right? This one is probably my favorite on the board. Jacksonville is quietly well coached and creative on offense, and now coach Doug Marrone and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden have 10 days to prepare off of a Thursday Night Football game. Cincinnati’s defense hasn’t played poorly so far, but it remains shaky. The Bengals’ offense is also getting better every week and importantly pushing the pace, ranking fifth in the NFL at. 24.57 seconds per play.
Two-team Teaser (1-2, -$120): Los Angeles Rams -7 & Detroit Lions +9 -125 (South Point)
My how I loathe this category, and not just because I’m losing. I’m not a fan of teasers, especially on a week like this where there are no obvious choices. Taking a six-pointer with the 49ers and Jaguars would technically qualify, but that just doesn’t do it for me, so let’s gamble. At least with the Rams, I can go through the 10 and reach 7. As for the Lions, the Saints are too beaten up to lay this many points. New Orleans shouldn’t win by more than a touchdown, and that’s the upper end of the range of possible outcomes.
Moneyline Parlay (3-0, $245.26): Cleveland Browns & Minnesota Vikings +629 (William Hill)
Speaking of gambling, this has been a strong category in the first three weeks, so let’s throw caution to the wind for once and go for a big score. Both the Browns and Vikings have a higher win probability than the market is assigning them. They’re both in the +155 to +160 moneyline range globally, but William Hill is going one further and offering them both at +170. I’ve played it safe in this column until now, but let’s tie these two together and roll the dice. A team traditionally cloaked in failure and one that missed practice part of the week for a coronavirus scare…what could go wrong?
Prop-hunting (2-3, -$118.99): Zach Ertz under 56.5 receiving yards (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Tip/reminder: I’ll also have a weekly prop bet every week in our Sunday Raiders’ gameday package. That will focus on the hometown team, obviously, while I’ll usually try to cover the Sunday Night Football game here. Those are the two contests with the most prop offerings. There’s a perception that the Eagles will have to throw to Ertz because they’re so short on other receiving options. It doesn’t usually work like that, though. It certainly shouldn’t work like that here considering the 49ers are the top team in the NFL in defending tight ends by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.
Non-football play (2-1, $110.91): Joey Logano +105 vs. Denny Hamlin in YellaWood 500 (Circa Sports)
I could force a play on the NBA Finals to appeal to a wider audience, but this about value, right? The NASCAR playoffs market is softer than the NBA Finals market, and here’s one example why. Joey Logano shouldn’t be an underdog to anyone at Talladega. He might have had a slightly disappointing year to this point, and it’s hard to bet against Hamlin, but Logano is a superspeedway specialist. He should be the favorite to win this race.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 12-8, $280.82
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
