Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020 | 4:57 p.m.
I got aggressive in the Sunday Sweats column for the first time last week and ultimately reaped the benefits.
An underdog moneyline parlay that paid better than 6-to-1 delivered Talking Points’ biggest win of the year so far. What started as a complement to the weekly pick’em column has eclipsed it in terms of profitability through the first four weeks of the season.
There’s no time to celebrate, though. Fortunes can flip quickly in sports betting, so let’s look to keep building in the right direction this week.
Read this Sunday Sweats column below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (5-2, $254.55): Bengals at Ravens under 51 (Station Casinos)
The NFL is currently on a seven-game streak of unders dating back to last Sunday afternoon, and I don’t think we’re done yet. The market correction from overs steaming in for the first month is coming, and it’s coming now in my opinion. Defenses are getting more up to speed, offenses appear to be getting more beaten up and opponents are becoming more familiar. This matchup specifically hits on the latter two, as the injury report is a nightmare of fantasy-relevant names in a game where neither side should really surprise each other. I like the under in almost every divisional matchup on Sunday, but this one probably holds the most value.
Two-team Teaser (2-2, -$40): New Orleans Saints -2 & Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -120 (William Hill)
Both these games are bigger mismatches than the betting lines indicate, and the chance to take the spreads through the 3 and 7 is too good to pass up. Pittsburgh got a chance to rest last week while Philadelphia had to fight to get its first win of the season across the country at San Francisco. Travel is also tilted in New Orleans’ favor on Monday Night Football as the opposing Los Angeles Chargers have crisscrossed the country for back-to-back road games against NFC South opponents. Both the personnel and situation favor both sides, making them an easy choice to tease down at fair odds.
Moneyline Parlay (4-0, $874.26): Atlanta Falcons & Jacksonville Jaguars +460 (Circa Sports)
I contemplated extending this to a three-teamer for the first time as a way to take on some more risk, but why fix what isn’t broken? The two-teamers based mostly on favorably-priced Circa moneylines have paid off, so let’s try one game. I’ll still get my gambling fill by taking one near pick’em — Atlanta at -135 — with one big underdog — Jacksonville at +222. The Panthers are a big step down for the Falcons after playing the Seahawks, Cowboys, Bears and Packers. I like the buy-low spot on Atlanta. As for Jacksonville, well, Houston deserves to be favored but not favored by this much. The Texans’ defense is full of holes and the Jaguars should at least be in the game with a chance to win late.
Prop-hunting* (3-4, -$128.08): Kirk Cousins over 273.5 passing yards (William Hill)
The veteran quarterback can’t deliver in primetime games? I don’t buy it. Sounds like noise within a small sample size to me. And in that whole sample size, he’s rarely faced a defensive backfield as poor as Seattle’s. The Vikings’ offense is clicking with Cousins feeding receivers Adam Theilen and Justin Jefferson. I don’t know that they’ll beat the Seahawks — they might — but they’re going to give them all they can handle. Russell Wilson will put up points with Seattle, and Cousins will need to do the same for Minnesota. Despite the popular narrative, he’s capable.
Non-football play (2-2, $10.91): LeBron James under 32.5 points (BetMGM)
It’s difficult to remember given how incredible he’s been in these NBA Finals, but James is 35 years old. Expecting him to score this many points twice in three days is a big ask, even bigger than it was earlier in his career. Yes, the Lakers’ NBA Finals MVP-in-waiting scored 40 in a Game 5 loss to the Miami Heat but that’s caused this total to spiral out of control. James’ point total in the other games in the series was over/under 28.5 — and he went under in three of five. James doesn’t have to score to be a difference-maker, and I’m envisioning something like a 25-point, 10-rebound, 8-assist night. This number is much too big.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 16-10, $971.64
*Make sure to check Sunday’s live Raiders gameday story for another prop pick.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
