Reed Hoffmann / Associated Press
Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) chases Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during the second half of their game Dec. 1, 2019, in Kansas City, Mo.
Sunday, Oct. 11, 2020 | 2 a.m.
Las Vegas gets its introduction to what many Raider fans would consider the team’s most heated rivalry series, with the Kansas City Chiefs, in Week 5. Unfortunately, it’s not an ideal time to become acquainted with the matchup from the perspective of the new home team.
The Chiefs are super-charged; they’re the defending Super Bowl champions and haven’t shown any signs of the dreaded hangover this season. Kansas City became the first team in NFL history to start 4-0 for four consecutive seasons with a win over the New England Patriots on Monday.
They’ve also beaten the Raiders five straight times, including all four since reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback, dating back to the 2017 season. Adding to the misery, the Raiders haven’t beaten the Chiefs at Arrowhead since 2012.
Favorable matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs. short week
• Who: Raiders at Chiefs
• When: 10 a.m.
• Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
• Media: KLAS-TV, Channel 8; Raider Nation Radio 920 AM
• Betting Line: Chiefs -12, over/under 55
Las Vegas (2-2) caught a small break when Kansas City’s game last week was postponed a day following New England quarterback Cam Newton testing positive for coronavirus. Data has consistently shown that NFL teams are less efficient when faced with even one day less of preparation for a game. It makes sense, as both practice and recovery times are cut when teams must cram their seven-day routines into six days. It might not seem like much of an edge, but teams have to take whatever they can get against the Chiefs, who present mismatches all over the field regardless of opponent. The truth is, the Raiders have no obvious advantage against the powerhouse Chiefs from a personnel perspective, but now, they do have one from a situational standpoint. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 18-13 in his career in games played the Sunday after a Monday night game, but has won four in a row.
Problematic matchup: Patrick Mahomes vs. Raiders’ pass defense
No one has put the Raiders’ annual limitations defending the pass in focus quite like Mahomes. Diehard fans are surely sick of seeing the stat line by now but here it is: Mahomes has thrown for 1,194 passing yards and 11 touchdowns to one interception in four games against the Raiders. Worse, he’s also averaging better than 5 yards per carry, including one touchdown on 15 rushing attempts. And the Raiders’ defense looks ripe for the taking once again. They rank 27th in the NFL in giving up 6.2 yards per play, and 26th in giving up 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The secondary is also banged up as Las Vegas lost starting cornerback Damon Arnette to a broken thumb before Week 4 and his replacement, Nevin Lawson, is among three cornerbacks — along with Lamarcus Joyner and Keisean Nixon — who have been limited in practice heading into the Chiefs game.
• “If you look at the turnover ratio in the four games since I’ve been back coaching against Kansas City, it is almost embarrassing. I’m sorry I brought it up. I hope I didn’t make you guys sick.” — Jon Gruden on the team’s minus-10 turnover margin the past two years against the Chiefs
• “When you’re playing against each other, Chiefs-Raiders, it’s not friendly. But we have to make it a rivalry, if we’re being honest. We have to go win some football games against them.” — Derek Carr
• “Everyone in the stadium wants you to mess up and fail. I love going into that environment. It gets me hyped. It makes you want to play harder. It makes you want to prove all those people wrong.” — Offensive lineman Denzelle Good on the Raiders playing in front of fans for the first time this season
• “We’ve got to take away what they do best and make them play with their left hand” — Johnathan Abram
Gamebreaker: Paul Guenther
Devising a scheme to slow the Chiefs is no easy task, but the Raiders’ third-year defensive coordinator must be feeling the pressure to do so this week. His job may depend on it. Guenther was in the press box, instead of his normal spot on the sideline, for last Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills. Head coach Jon Gruden oddly described it as a “loaded question” when asked about the move and had to later give Guenther a vote of confidence. The Raiders are downplaying the situation, but these are typically signs of tenuous job security. NFL coaches are often let go during bye weeks, and the Raiders are scheduled for their bye week after the Chiefs game. Gruden and Guenther both spoke of high expectations for this year’s defense coming into the season, and if it continues to fail to live up to them, someone is going to take the fall. It’s hard to imagine it being anyone other than Guenther.
Big number: 309
Consecutive passes Derek Carr has thrown without an interception dating back to last season’s Week 13 game at Kansas City. That’s the longest current streak in the NFL, but not the longest streak of Carr’s career. The seventh-year quarterback went 332 passes without an interception in 2018, another run that was halted in Kansas City. The 332-pass streak is the third-longest in NFL history, trailing Aaron Rodgers’ 409 consecutive passes and Tom Brady’s 358. Fumbles have been Carr’s bigger issue as he’s already committed three this season, including one the Raiders lost last week, to bring his career total to 31.
Best Bet: Josh Jacobs to score a touchdown at Even money
Jacobs has gone three weeks without finding the end zone, pulling his touchdown prop to even money, a clear buy point — especially in this matchup. The Chiefs are second-to-last in giving up 5.3 yards per rush attempt. They also struggle to defend running backs in the passing game, rating 28th according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Not only will Jacobs have a chance to break loose on an explosive play, but he’ll also be the Raiders’ preferred option near the goal line in a game where they’ll want to keep the clock running and not risk incompletions that give Mahomes added time to work with.
