AP
Vegas Golden Knights’ goalie Robin Lehner (90) makes the save as Vancouver Canucks Elias Pettersson (40) jumps and Nate Schmidt (88) defends during the first period of an NHL Western Conference Stanley Cup playoff game in Edmonton, Alberta, on Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2020. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)
Thursday, Aug. 27, 2020 | 2 a.m.
After a dominating performance in Game 1 against the Vancouver Canucks, Golden Knights players and their coach were asked if there was anything they could improve on as the series progressed.
Both forward Jonathan Marchessault and coach Peter DeBoer mentioned one thing.
“Well we got eaten alive in the faceoff circle,” DeBoer said.
That continued into Game 2, a Vancouver victory that evened the series up ahead of Game 3 at 6:45 p.m. tonight. The Canucks have won nearly two-thirds of the faceoffs through two games, showing one clear edge they have in the series with the favored Golden Knights.
“Numbers don’t lie — they’re winning more faceoffs than we are,” forward Mark Stone said. “It’s a five-man buy-in and we’ve got to do a better job.”
The Canucks won 54.0% of its draws in the regular season, second in the NHL. They’re third in the league in the postseason, winning 54.8%. The Golden Knights ranked 16th of 31 in the regular season in winning faceoffs, and 23rd of 24 in the playoffs.
Through two games, the Golden Knights have won just 35% of the draws, something that didn’t seem to have an effect in Game 1, but cost them in Game 2. The Canucks scored two of their four goals off Robin Lehner almost immediately after a faceoff win in the offensive zone.
The first was on the power play, where Vancouver had the built-in advantage of having more space to move.
The second half of this clip does a good job of showing how Bo Horvat beats William Karlsson at the dot, then glides to the center of the ice while Elias Pettersson collected the faceoff and the rest of the Canucks set up. Tyler Toffoli dashed down low, collected the Pettersson pass and fed Horvat right in the middle for the goal. Vegas never even had a chance to touch the puck.
The second one was more of the same. Near the end of the second period, Pettersson won the faceoff, then breaks from his defender (Karlsson) and jumps to the net. He takes the pass and does the rest. Again, Vegas never touched it.
Winning faceoffs allowed Vancouver to draw up the set plays that led to two goals right away. From the time the official dropped the puck for the faceoff on both the Horvat and Pettersson plays to the puck going in the net, a combined 14 seconds passed.
“Well they’re the best faceoff team in the league, and we’re not going to fix that in this series,” DeBoer said. “I think what we can fix is make sure our coverage is better and not give them anything off the ones they win.”
If the Golden Knights aren’t going to beat the Canucks in the circle, how can they overcome what appears to be a possession advantage of Vancouver starting most plays after a whistle with the puck?
Simply, get the puck back.
The Canucks may have scored twice on Tuesday by winning faceoffs in the Vegas zone, but the Golden Knights also scored once in a similar situation. In the second period ahead of Alex Tuch’s goal, the Golden Knights lost a faceoff in their own zone but went the other way and scored, almost immediately after.
The clip doesn’t show the draw, but with 13:40 remaining in the second period, Pettersson beats Nicolas Roy at the dot. Within six seconds Nick Cousins has stolen the puck from Pettersson and Vegas transitions to the breakout. Cousins gives it to Shea Theodore who finds a streaking Roy who sets up Tuch for the goal.
The Golden Knights lost the draw, but considering they scored 14 seconds later, they may as well have won it.
These examples all came from one game. The faceoffs definitely mattered in Game 2, but it’s fair to wonder how much winning faceoffs matters in a macro sense. After all, the Golden Knights lost 63% of the draws in Game 1, and still won by five goals.
In the three seasons of existence, the Golden Knights rank seventh in the league among regular-season points percentage at .613 and 18th in the league in faceoff win rate at 49.8%.
The best team in the NHL over the past three regular seasons is the Tampa Bay Lightning, and they rank one spot higher than the Golden Knights in the faceoff rankings. The worst regular season team has been the Red Wings, and they’re one spot behind Vegas.
The best faceoff team (by a large margin) over the past three years is the Flyers, and they’ve been the 12th-best at accumulating standings points. The worst faceoff team is the Avalanche, and they’re two spots ahead of the Flyers.
A graph (with the Golden Knights’ position highlighted) showing team winning percentage over the past three seasons on the x-axis and team faceoff rate on the y-axis in the span shows no relevant statistical correlation between winning faceoffs and winning games (r — the coefficient of a data set where 1 shows a positive correlation, minus-1 shows a negative correlation and 0 shows no correlation — equals 0.28).
That’s something to be mindful of watching the rest of this series, where the Canucks are likely to continue winning draws. The Golden Knights have the edge in most aspects of the series, and some extra film or work in practice won’t cover the gap the Canucks have over the Golden Knights in this one.
It just likely won’t matter.
“When you play the best faceoff team in the league, you’re going to get exposed in that area,” DeBoer said. “Just like we’re exposing them in some of the things we do really well.”
Series: Tied 1-1
TV: NBC Sports Network (DirecTV 220, Cox 38, CenturyLink 640)
Radio: Fox Sports 1340 AM and 98.9 FM
Betting line: Golden Knights minus-210, Canucks plus-175; over/under: 6 (minus-105, minus-115)
Golden Knights (8-2, Western Conference No. 1 seed)
Previous round: Defeated Chicago in first round, 4-1
Coach: Peter DeBoer (first season)
Points leaders: Shea Theodore (11)
Goals leaders: Alex Tuch (6)
Assists leaders: Shea Theodore (11)
Expected goalie: Robin Lehner (2.34 GAA, .909 save percentage)
Canucks (8-4, Western Conference No. 7 seed)
Previous round: Defeated St. Louis in first round, 4-2
Coach: Travis Green (third season)
Points leaders: Elias Pettersson (16)
Goals leader: Bo Horvat (6)
Assists leaders: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson (11)
Expected goalie: Jacob Markstrom (2.64 GAA, .925 save percentage)
Golden Knights projected lineup
Forwards
Max Pacioretty—William Karlsson—Mark Stone
Jonathan Marchessault—Paul Stastny—Reilly Smith
Nick Cousins—Nicolas Roy—Alex Tuch
William Carrier—Chandler Stephenson—Ryan Reaves
Defensemen
Brayden McNabb—Nate Schmidt
Alec Martinez—Shea Theodore
Nick Holden—Zach Whitecloud
Goalies
Robin Lehner, Marc-André Fleury
