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Las Vegas Raiders Practice 8/25

John Locher / AP

Las Vegas Raiders coach Jon Gruden reacts during training camp Friday, Aug. 21, 2020, in Henderson.

Jon Gruden has been back on the job with the Raiders for three years now, and while he has worked with general managers Reggie McKenzie (2018) and Mike Mayock (2019, 2020) throughout the draft process, it’s Gruden who is ultimately calling the shots when Las Vegas is on the clock.

So how has he performed as a drafter since his return to the NFL? I tried ranking all 25 picks Gruden has made over the last three years from best to worst in order to get a feel for how much value he has extracted from each selection.

This exercise turned out to be more art than science, but I did stick to a few basic rules. For instance, pick value matters. Using a second-round pick on a scrub is way worse than using a seventh-round pick on a scrub. And context matters. Drafting Henry Ruggs in the first round is meh; drafting Henry Ruggs in the first round ahead of Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb is bad.

Let’s take a look at what Gruden has done with three years’ worth of draft picks:

1. Kolton Miller, 2018

1st round — No. 15 overall

Gruden’s first draft pick has been his best. Left tackle is a premium position, and though it took Miller a couple of years to grow into the job, the Raiders just handed him a big extension to be the anchor of their offensive line. That’s a great result for the middle of the first round.

2. Maxx Crosby, 2019

4th round — No. 106 overall

Crosby is not a perfect player, but he excels in one of the most important aspects of the game: rushing the passer. With 17 sacks over his first two years, he has entrenched himself as the Raiders’ best defensive player. You can’t ask for more in the fourth round.

3. Hunter Renfrow, 2019

5th round — No. 149 overall

Renfrow wasn’t exactly a “find” in the fifth round, as pretty much every GM had to know he would turn out to be a productive slot receiver in the pros. But the Raiders get credit for nabbing him; he has caught 105 passes in two years, with 62 of them going for first downs.

4. Maurice Hurst Jr., 2018

5th round — No. 140 overall

Gruden gets big props for finding a legitimate pass-rushing defensive tackle in the fifth round. Unfortunately, he cut Hurst two weeks ago in a puzzling move. Hurst signed with the San Francisco 49ers.

5. Clelin Ferrell, 2019

1st round — No. 4 overall

It was viewed as a massive reach when Gruden used a top-five pick on Ferrell, a stout run defender who projected more as a plugger than an impact player in the NFL. But Ferrell has performed well, and when viewed against the rest of an underwhelming 2019 first round, the Raiders came away looking smart.

6. Josh Jacobs, 2019

1st round — No. 24 overall

Drafting running backs in the first round is bad business, but Jacobs has at least panned out as a very good ball-carrier. Beastly defensive end Montez Sweat went two picks later.

7. Trayvon Mullen, 2019

2nd round — No. 40 overall

Mullen is somewhere between average and good, and that is very helpful at the cornerback position. A second-round pick returning that kind of value has to be considered a hit. Unfortunately for the Raiders, things take a downward turn from here.

8. Foster Moreau, 2019

4th round — No. 137 overall

Moreau has shown flashes of being a legitimate receiving tight end, but injuries and Jason Witten signings have held him back.

9. Brandon Parker, 2018

3rd round — No. 65 overall

You’d like more from an offensive lineman drafted this high, but the book is not closed on Parker yet. He could be in line for an increased role in 2021.

10. John Simpson, 2020

4th round — No. 109 overall

Simpson is a massive guard who got a look last year. The team still believes he could develop into a starter, which is about what you’d expect when spending a fourth-rounder at that position.

11. Amik Robertson, 2020

4th round — No. 139 overall

A high upside choice in last year’s fourth round, Robertson has good cover skills but his tiny stature makes him a liability anywhere but the slot. He’ll have to fight for a roster spot in 2021.

12. Henry Ruggs, 2020

1st round — No. 12 overall

Ruggs made a handful of big plays as a rookie. Unfortunately, his overall production lagged and the receivers drafted after him — Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb — looked like instant studs. Those comparisons are going to follow Ruggs for his whole career, and right now they make this pick look like a first-round miss.

13. Isaiah Johnson, 2019

4th round — No. 129 overall

It was worth using a fourth-round pick on a player with Johnson’s measurables (6-foot-2, 4.40 40-yard dash), but the returns have been negligible. He played 17% of the team’s defensive snaps last year.

14. Bryan Edwards, 2020

3rd round — No. 81 overall

Gruden fell in love with Edwards’ size and physicality, and he drew rave reviews in training camp. Injuries kept him off the field for most of his rookie season, so there’s still hope that Edwards could turn into something useful. Ideally, you’d want more than hope when it comes to a third-rounder.

15. Marcell Ateman, 2018

7th round — No. 228 overall

Still technically on the roster but not a contributor, Ateman represents a mildly positive return for a seventh-rounder.

16. Quinton Bell, 2019

7th round — No. 230 overall

Bell didn’t make the team as a rookie but latched on in Tampa Bay as a special-teamer last year.

17. Johnny Townsend, 2018

5th round — No. 173 overall

A punter who got a cup of coffee with the Raiders as a rookie, he filled in as a part-time injury replacement for Baltimore last year.

18. Azeem Victor, 2018

6th round — No. 216 overall

A late-round flier who got cut in his first training camp. Not good for a sixth-rounder but not the end of the world.

19. Damon Arnette, 2020

1st round — No. 19 overall

Is Arnette a better player than the handful of special-teams nobodies listed immediately ahead of him here? Absolutely. But they were late-round grab bags. Arnette was a first-round pick who allowed quarterbacks to complete 78.1% of their passes against him as a rookie. Oh, and star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. was taken 26 picks later. That’s gotta sting.

20. Arden Key, 2018

3rd round — No. 87 overall

Gruden thought Key would be bring juice to the pass rush as a third-down specialist, but Key did nothing in three years with the Raiders (3.0 sacks, 15 QB hurries) and was cut a few weeks ago. Very bad return on a top-100 pick.

21. Lynn Bowden, 2020

3rd round — No. 80 overall

Using a third-rounder on an offensive skill player without a position was a regretful decision, but at least Gruden was able to get something back when he dumped Bowden to the Dolphins toward the end of training camp. Still, the fourth-round pick Las Vegas received doesn’t make up for the embarrassment of drafting Bowden to begin with.

22. Nick Nelson, 2018

4th round — No. 110 overall

Nelson started three games as a rookie but allowed four touchdowns and a passer rating of 134.3 on 30 targets. He was cut after the 2019 season and is out of the league. Gruden blew that pick in a big way.

23. Johnathan Abram, 2019

1st round — No. 27 overall

No hindsight was required for this pick: Using a first-round selection on a box safety with no coverage ability was a very risky move at the time, and Gruden is paying for it now. Abram allowed quarterbacks to complete an unfathomable 81.8% when targeting him last year, and no matter how hard Abram tries to hit, it’s not going to make up for all the receivers running free in his area. Abram will get a chance to show he can play in a new scheme in 2021, but his future with the team is very iffy.

24. P.J. Hall, 2018

2nd round — No. 57 overall

Hall played two ghost-like seasons for the Raiders before being traded to Minnesota for a conditional 7th-round pick. But Hall couldn’t even bring back that meager asset in a trade, as he failed his physical with the Vikings and was returned to Las Vegas; the Raiders promptly cut him and lost him for nothing. A truly horrendous result for a second-round selection.

25. Tanner Muse, 2020

3rd round — No. 100 overall

Gruden fell in love with Muse after he turned in a strong combine performance last offseason, but using a top-100 pick on such a marginal prospect was the definition of a reach. Muse made things harder on himself by referring to himself as a “special teams war daddy” after the draft (hint for future press conferences: Fans don’t want to draft special teamers in the third round). Muse got off to a slow start in training camp as the team attempted to convert him from college safety to pro linebacker, and in his defense a toe injury sidelined him for the entire year, so he never got a chance to prove himself on the field. But as things stand now, this looks like the worst draft pick of the Gruden 2.0 era.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.

Article written by #LasVegasSun

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