Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press
Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021 | 12:30 p.m.
From anchor to lifter, the player props finally broke through in last week’s Sunday Sweats.
I went 3-for-3 on props, including the weekly pick listed in the Raiders’ gameday section on Sundays, as the category single-handedly ensured a third straight winning week in the column. I’ve still got a ways to go to catch last year’s 17-unit profit, but I’m well into the black and on the way. It’s going to be a lot easier if I can avoid another 3-7 stretch on player props like the one that struck to start the season.
Read below for this week’s bets in five different categories as part of the Sunday Sweats column. Bets placed outside of the college and pro football pick’ems, including a weekly prop on the Raiders’ game that runs Sunday, will be tracked (and linked when possible) here.
Tasty Total (3-3, -$31.23): Colts at 49ers over 42.5 points (William Hill)
This is a fair price based on what these two teams have done so far this season, but I’m not sure it’s fair to set a price based on what these two teams have done so far this season. There are reasons to believe both offenses will be on an upswing for Sunday Night Football. The 49ers get back quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to take on a Colts’ pass defense that ranks 29th in the league against the pass per Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Colts’ offense woke up in a 31-3 victory against the Texans last week and should only get better as the offensive line continues to get healthier. Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson is returning to the Indianapolis lineup this week. I think it’s likely both teams score more than 21 points, making this an over play.
Two-team Teaser (7-0, $583.31): Miami Dolphins +8.5 & Green Bay Packers -2 -120 (William Hill)
This is the one general strategy teaser possibility on the board, and it’s hard to look away from. The Dolphins are an immediate add in any teaser because there’s no world in which they’re a field goal worse than the Falcons on their home field to begin with. Getting them over a touchdown is a bargain. I’m more skittish about including the Packers because I think they’re headed towards a crash, but I’m also not sure the Football Team is the one who can provide it. I considered swapping Green Bay out with a couple sides that don’t fit the usual teaser threshold of moving through the 3 and 6 — namely the Giants and the Patriots — but couldn’t ultimately do it. There are worse things than counting on Aaron Rodgers to win outright against a bad team at Lambeau Field.
Moneyline Parlay (2-4, $200): New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders & New Orleans Saints +1137 (Circa Sports)
Every week I tell myself I may gamble in this category and then ultimately end up passing. Not this week. I’m going for it. I think there’s value in all four of these moneylines — Miami at +112, New York at +131, Las Vegas at -146 and New Orleans at -200 — so why not tie them together? At most other sports books, this four-teamer pays out only 10-to-1 or a little less. Circa’s fairer moneyline prices boost the potential payout enough for me to forget about caution and go for a longshot but one that might be slightly more likely than the odds imply.
Player Prop (6-7, -$161.68): Jimmy Garoppolo over 1.5 touchdown passes +155 (William Hill)
Garoppolo gets bad rap but there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be able to have success against the aforementioned, struggling Colts’ secondary. The veteran quarterback is not someone who’s going to blow you away with his downfield passing acumen or aggressive throws into the end zone, but he’s mostly solid and consistent. The likeliest outcome against the Colts is he throws for one or two touchdowns. I’d make the over/under of 1.5 a pick’em price of -110 on both sides, leaving tremendous value at the current line. Reminder to check back on Sunday for a prop on the Raiders’ game that will be linked here.
Non-football Play (3-3, -$9.09): New York Islanders +140 at Vegas Golden Knights (Boyd Sports)
Down their two best players, the Golden Knights are too beaten-up to make this a reasonable price. The Islanders aren’t fully healthy either —they could really use the return of goalie Semyon Varlamov — but their problems pale in comparison to those being faced by the Golden Knights, which are now down Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Alec Martinez, Zach Whitecloud and Alex Tuch. I thought this might be a spot to buy on the Golden Knights with the Islanders playing a back-to-back, but that was under the assumption their line would be -125 or maybe even -120. Opening the home team 35 or 40 cents higher is outrageous. The Islanders’ win probability is less than 50% at T-Mobile Arena, but it’s not close to 40% as the line currently implies.
Sunday Sweats year to date: 21-17, $581.31
Weekend betting column all-time: 196-178, $5,530.48
Previous pending wagers: Texas over 8.5 wins +110; Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins -125; Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East +150; Georgia 10-to-1 to win College Football Playoff; Baltimore Ravens 20-to-1 to win Super Bowl; Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament.