Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Robin Lehner (90) makes a save during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Anaheim Ducks at T-Mobile Arena Friday, Oct. 29, 2021.
Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2021 | 2 a.m.
The Golden Knights have played eight games this season — almost 10% of their 82-game schedule — with mixed results.
They enter tonight’s 4 p.m. road game with the Toronto Maple Leafs having won three in a row. But they’ve had a four-game losing streak and are already five points out of the lead in a competitive Pacific Division.
So what do we know about the 4-4-0 Golden Knights?
Here are a few takeaways as Vegas embarks on a four-game road trip through eastern Canada and Detroit.
Injury woes
The story of the Golden Knights so far is who has not been on the ice. It started with Alex Tuch getting offseason shoulder surgery and continued with preseason injuries and COVID-19 setbacks to Nicolas Roy, William Carrier, Brett Howden and Mattias Janmark.
It hasn’t slowed down.
Since the season began, Janmark was hurt again, as was Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Alec Martinez, Nolan Patrick and Zach Whitecloud.
A report surfaced Monday that William Karlsson also will miss time.
That’s not just a lot of players missing time, but key players. That’s half of the top-six, most of the forward depth, a top-pair defenseman and another regular on the blue line.
Few teams would be able to withstand that much missed time, and Vegas is no different.
The Golden Knights started 1-4-0, matching the worst start in team history. They’ve won their last three to return to .500 on the year, but they have still just won two regulation games in eight outings.
Chandler Stephenson is pacing the team with four goals and nine points, and no one else has even three goals or five points. Vegas is scoring 2.5 goals per game this season.
Alex Pietrangelo’s conundrum
The Golden Knights’ highest-paid active player (with Stone injured) has been the ultimate divergence of eye test vs. analytics.
Pietrangelo has been active in both zones, seemingly throwing the team on his back when Vegas has needed a spark.
He ranks second on the team with 25 shots, but his numbers tell a different story.
He hasn’t scored and has one assist in eight games, the only skater who has played every game with one point or fewer.
With Pietrangelo on the ice, opponents have 98 shots on goal, more than any other Golden Knight. He’s allowed the opposition 9.72 expected goals, also most on the team, and Vegas has been outscored 9-4 with him on the ice at 5-on-5.
Add it up and Pietrangelo has been worth minus-4.5 goals above replacement (via Evolving Hockey’s model), worst in the NHL.
Granted, Pietrangelo has the most ice time on the team and plays the toughest matchups, but all those numbers are concerning.
He was superb in the postseason last year but was lackluster in the regular season. Some level of positive regression is expected from Pietrangelo — he hasn’t had a below-replacement season since 2009-10 — but it’s certainly been a rough start for the Golden Knights’ top defenseman.
Numbers paint a rough picture
It’s not just Pietrangelo. The Golden Knights are analytically one of the worst teams in the league, a stark reversal from the past few years where they’ve been among the best.
Entering the week and according to Natural Stat Trick, the Golden Knights have allowed the most shots on goal per game in the league (34.1), most expected goals (3.1), most scoring chances (33.5) and most high-danger scoring chances (14.8).
Some of that is offset by the offensive production, but they still have the fourth-worst expected-goals rate (44.8%) in the NHL.
Vegas has led the league in that stat (54.8%) over the last three seasons.
Much of that has to do with the injuries. Stone and Pacioretty are possession monsters, and that duo, when healthy, will help boost the numbers. Ditto for an expected bounce-back for Pietrangelo.
The players who have been on the ice this season, though, have struggled. The usually dependable trio of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Reilly Smith are outshooting opponents but have been outscored 8-5 and are getting walloped in high-danger chances, falling on the wrong end of a 26-15 margin.
The net is secure
The good news? The Golden Knights’ goalie has been superb. Look beyond Robin Lehner’s .910 save percentage and 3.00 goals-against average — both fine but unspectacular — and dig a little deeper. All those above stats about how poor the defense has been take a toll on a goalie’s back-of-the-hockey-card numbers.
Instead, look at the expected-goals numbers (taken from Evolving Hockey). No goalie in the league has faced fewer expected goals from the opposition than the 25.95 that Lehner has in seven outings. He’s given up 20.2 goals (partial goals are a result of the site’s calculations), leading to his 5.75 goals saved above expected, fifth in the NHL.
Lehner has outperformed the Golden Knights’ defense by a fairly significant margin. Four times this year, he has saved more than one goal over what the expected-goals numbers would suggest, peaking at 2.25 against the St. Louis Blues in the third game of the season.
He has only had a negative expected-goals number in two games, and just one (Oct. 14 at Los Angeles) when he gave up more than one goal over expected.
Lehner has been the Golden Knights’ best player this season and if not for him, the team’s 4-4-0 record could look even worse.
Help on the way?
It should never surprise anyone when the Golden Knights are involved in acquiring a star player. The team has existed for just over four years and has already brought in Marc-Andre Fleury, Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone, Robin Lehner and Alex Pietrangelo. It’s what they do.
Rumors ramped up again last weekend regarding Buffalo center Jack Eichel, and some reports even suggested a deal was close to being finalized. It would be another in a long line of top players, but this one comes with the catch of Eichel’s injury.
Eichel and the Sabres have disagreed over which surgery would be best for his injured neck, an issue that was expected to be resolved in the offseason but as of now has no finality. Eichel still needs surgery — even if the Golden Knights acquired him tomorrow, he wouldn’t be available for weeks to months.
Considering the Golden Knights’ own injury situation, it’s hard right now to justify shipping out the kind of roster players Buffalo would ask for in return.
Krebs doesn’t have a point yet, but he’s played every game and is considered a building block. Patrick is hurt and Karlsson might be too, so centers are already at a premium.
That’s not to say a trade won’t happen. As long as the Golden Knights can weather the injuries and be healthy for the playoffs, this team can still make a run in the spring. Eichel would unquestionably help with that.
