Tony Gutierrez / Associated Press
Memphis guard Landers Nolley II (3) walks off the court and is greeted by head coach Penny Hardaway, right, during a game against Colorado State on March 27 in Frisco, Texas.
Thursday, Nov. 4, 2021 | 2 a.m.
The NCAA Tournament is the biggest sports betting event of the year, but bettors waiting until March to wager on teams to win the 68-team field are doing themselves a disservice.
The market is highly efficient by then, with casinos having collectively taken millions of dollars in action to mostly have teams priced appropriately. A better strategy—and one employed by those betting at the highest level—is to build a portfolio of futures bets with value prices throughout the season, starting immediately.
The season tips off Tuesday, November 9, so here are four teams worth considering betting whose odds shouldn’t take long to dip lower.
Texas (15-to-1 at Circa Sports)
The transfer portal, and eradication of penalties for players switching schools, has changed the landscape of college basketball, and no program utilized it better this offseason than Texas.
The Longhorns have the top transfer score of any power conference program, according to statistician Bart Torvik’s analytical model. The headliner of the incoming transfers is National Player of the Year candidate Marcus Carr, who averaged more than 19 points per game last season at Minnesota.
Texas was a trendy Final Four sleeper pick going into last year’s NCAA Tournament before getting upset by Abilene Christian—and that was with both a weaker roster and lesser coach. Underachieving coach Shaka Smart left for Marquette, and Texas wooed Texas Tech’s Chris Beard, widely considered one of the sharpest coaches in the sport, to take his place. Beard brought Texas Tech to a national championship game three seasons ago; imagine what he can do with more resources at Texas.
This number has crashed from as high as 50-to-1 before Beard’s hire to as low as 5-to-1 at some shops around town. The Longhorns are still worth playing at 12-to-1 or better.
Memphis (30-to-1 at Golden Nugget)
It has been several years since a group of uber-talented blue-chip freshmen proved unstoppable en route to a national championship. Memphis could revisit a trend that once was considered the future of college basketball.
This year’s Tigers are built in a similar vein to the 2015 Duke Blue Devils and 2012 Kentucky Wildcats, teams that overwhelmed opponents with their athleticism. A pair of five-star incoming freshmen—swingman Emoni Bates and big man Jalen Duren—lead what 24/7 Sports rated the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation.
It’s the second time in three years coach Penny Hardaway’s program has earned top honors, and a couple of players remain from his No. 1 class in 2019: Lester Quinones and Malcolm Dandridge. Hardaway guaranteed a national championship after he took over at Memphis in 2018, and he might be closer than some of the betting odds indicate.
Concerns over Hardaway not being a seasoned enough coach should also be assuaged after he bulked up his assistant staff by bringing in veteran Hall of Famer Larry Brown this offseason.
Alabama (33-to-1 at Circa Sports)
No power conference team plays a smarter style than the Crimson Tide. Coach Nate Oats employs an ultra-modern 3-and-D approach, and now that he has ideal personnel in place to execute it, opponents are scrambling to catch up. First-team all-conference players Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Shackelford lead a stacked backcourt rotation that took the SEC by storm a year ago.
The Crimson Tide went on a 10-game win streak mid-year before winning both the conference regular-season and tournament titles. Few teams looked stronger going into the NCAA Tournament, where Alabama’s high-variance style eventually caught up to it.
The Tide made only seven of 28 3-point attempts while getting ousted by UCLA in the Sweet 16. But it would be a mistake to consider one off-night a portent of things to come.
Alabama projects to be an even better offensive team this year, and as long as it can avoid a nightmare shooting night at an inopportune time, it has a chance to win more than a pair of conference titles. The Tide could just win it all.
Ohio State (40-to-1 at Circa Sports)
Tournament success, or in this case, lack thereof, holds too much influence on the perception of programs. The Buckeyes haven’t made it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament in four seasons under coach Chris Holtmann, with the repeated failings covering up what have otherwise been consistent production and progress. Ohio State has been in the top 20 of Ken Pomeroy’s season-end analytical rankings in three of four years under Holtmann, who had his best team a year ago.
The Buckeyes earned a No. 2 seed in the tournament last March before getting stunned by Oral Roberts in the opening round. The good news is, most of the squad is back to try again; Ohio State ranks first in experience in the Big Ten Conference according to Torvik’s numbers.
Forward E.J. Liddell is one of the best players in the country. Betting odds price the Big Ten as a two-team race between Michigan (14-to-1 to win the title) and Purdue (21-to-1), but that’s a mistake.
Ohio State and Illinois (also worth a look at 40-to-1 at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) also have extremely high upsides.
This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
