Las Vegas Raiders Josh McDaniels stands on the field during the second half of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023.
Friday, May 12, 2023 | 2 a.m.
The Raiders have averaged seven victories per season over the last decade.
Unfortunately for fans hoping for a breakthrough in the upcoming 2023-2024 season, that again appears to be the most likely result. Sports books that have already opened over/under win totals for NFL teams, including Nevada’s largest operator in Caesars/William Hill, tab the Raiders at 7.5 wins with a higher price on the under.
Caesars, for instance, is offering -140 (i.e. risking $100 to win $140) on the under 7.5 victories with the over coming back at +120 (i.e. risking $100 to win $120).
As much as I’d like to break from conventional wisdom and go with a bolder take on one side or the other, my first run through the schedule after last night’s release wound up with a rather boring result. I’m calling for the Raiders to go 7-10, a one-win improvement from last season but still a decline from the franchise’s first two years in Las Vegas.
Read below to go through the whole schedule with me and find out how I got to that record. It’s incredibly hard to hit the exact record — let alone with the right games as wins and losses — but worth noting that’s exactly what happened the last time I did this exercise on schedule-release night, two years ago.
Week 1 — at Denver Broncos, 1:25 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 10
Even though the Broncos opened as a 3-point favorite Thursday night and should be better under new coach Sean Payton, the Raiders have continually found ways to beat their longtime rivals with six straight victories in the series. Half of those wins have come by less than a touchdown, and they may find another way to squeak one out to start next season. Raiders 27, Broncos 26.
Week 2 — at Buffalo Bills, 10 a.m., Sunday, Sept. 17
This could get ugly, with the second of a back-to-back set of road games against a team that rated as the best in the NFL for the majority of last season. The Bills dropped a bit once injuries mounted, but they should conceivably be healthy this early in the season. Bills 33, Raiders 10.
Week 3 — vs. Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football, 5:20 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 24
Steelers rookie tight end Darnell Washington catches his first NFL touchdown in his hometown, but new Raiders linebacker Robert Spillane ultimately gets revenge on his former team. Look for this to be as close as last year’s cold and ugly Christmas Eve game, just with the opposite result. Raiders 24, Steelers 21.
Week 4 — at Los Angeles Chargers, 1:05 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 1
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has thrown for 1,859 yards with 14 touchdowns and only one interception in six career games against the Raiders. Las Vegas hasn’t improved enough in the secondary to slow what should be the best version of the fourth-year passer yet. Chargers 30, Raiders 20.
Week 5 — vs. Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football, 5:15 p.m., Monday, Oct. 9
Green and yellow will fill Allegiant Stadium for the Packers’ debut in the $2 billion venue, but that can only take the visitors so far. The Raiders’ defense shows signs of life and beats a Packers’ team that starts the year strong. Raiders 23, Packers 14.
Week 6 — vs. New England Patriots, 1:05 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 15
The perfect start to the season at home goes to the wayside against a revitalized Patriots’ offense under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. It took a miracle for the Raiders to beat the Patriots at home in regulation last year; none materialize this time around. Patriots 26, Raiders 20.
Week 7 — at Chicago Bears, 10 a.m., Sunday, Oct. 22
If nothing else, the Raiders’ defense appears to have gotten more athletic this offseason. They chase Justin Fields down enough to eke out another close win during a fortunately nice, not-too-cold day at Solider Field. Raiders 31, Bears 21
Week 8 — at Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football, 5:15 p.m., Monday, Oct. 30
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s somewhat surprising decision to stay in Detroit this offseason spells trouble for Las Vegas’ defense. He’ll be able to scheme up big plays for the likes of rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and star wide receiver Amon Ra St. Brown against a Las Vegas defense that looked far less settled under its own first-year coordinator, Patrick Graham, last season. Lions 35, Raiders 24.
Week 9 — vs. New York Giants, 1:25 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 5
The Giants’ recent trade with the Raiders for tight end Darren Waller bolsters them, but only to an extent. They’re still one of the weaker teams in terms of overall talent, a side Las Vegas should be able to handle at home. Raiders 24, Giants 21.
Week 10 — vs. New York Jets on Sunday Night Football, 5:20 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 12
This is about the time where it’s easy to start worrying about an injury to quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed time all but one season with his last team, the 49ers. And if it’s Aidan O’Connell or Brian Hoyer vs. Aaron Rodgers, that’s too big of a handicap to overcome. Jets 27, Raiders 10.
Week 11 — at Miami Dolphins, 10 a.m., Sunday, Nov. 19
The maddening zig-zag between wins and losses finally ends here — just not in a good way for the Raiders. Garoppolo or not, new Miami defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has a scheme to slow the Las Vegas offense. Dolphins 21, Raiders 13.
Week 12 — vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 1:25 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 26
Patrick Mahomes finally loses a road AFC West divisional contest at some point this season. It just won’t quite be here, not when he’s put up 107 combined points in three trips to Allegiant Stadium so far. Chiefs 31, Raiders 26.
Week 13 — BYE
Week 14 — vs. Minnesota Vikings, 1:05 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 10
The Raiders come back from their bye week refreshed, and benefit from a huge game by receiver Davante Adams against a team he long tormented as a member of the Packers. Stock is down on Las Vegas coming into the game, but it shows the team is not done yet with a resilient performance. Raiders 36, Vikings 20.
Week 15 — vs. Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football, 5:15 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 14
Fans dare to dream about a possible playoff berth with the Raiders evening their record at 7-7 after surviving a short-week shootout with the Chargers. This matchup will have shades of the 2021-2022 regular-season finale between these teams, the most memorable game in Allegiant Stadium history. Raiders 35, Chargers 31.
Week 16 — at Kansas City Chiefs, 10 a.m., Monday, Dec. 25
Arrowhead Stadium again proves a house of horrors for the Raiders, which get picked apart by Mahomes. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce may not score four touchdowns like in the Raiders’ trip last year, but he racks up at least 100 receiving yards. Chiefs 36, Raiders 14.
Week 17 — at Indianapolis Colts, 10 a.m., Sunday, Dec. 31
This is an unfortunate time to draw the Colts, which could be rolling offensively under shrewd new head coach (and UNLV grad) Shane Steichen after early-season growing pains with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. Fellow rookie Josh Downs makes a game-winning catch in the final minute for the Colts for a characteristically wild Raiders’ endgame situation to clinch another losing record for the franchise. Colts 26, Raiders 24.
Week 18 — vs. Denver Broncos, time and date TBD
The Raiders looked listless in a Week 18 divisional game last year when they had nothing to play for. History repeats against a Denver team that’s improved significantly since the Week 1 meeting. Broncos 27, Raiders 14.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
