Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP
Vegas Golden Knights celebrate after a win over the Chicago Blackhawk in Game 5 of an NHL hockey first-round playoff series, Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2020, in Edmonton, Alberta. The Golden Knights won the series.
Thursday, Aug. 20, 2020 | 2 a.m.
One down, three to go.
The Golden Knights ousted the Chicago Blackhawks in five games in the first round, moving them into the NHL’s elite eight of playoff teams. There will be three more series if the Golden Knights are to play for the Stanley Cup and they sure look ready to do so after one series and a round robin.
How did Vegas beat Chicago and make it look so easy? The Golden Knights are one of the elite teams in the NHL, and dismantling Chicago shows they are built for a deep run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
“Throughout the playoffs, every series gets harder and harder,” defenseman Alec Martinez said. “We want to keep playing good hockey and keep building on our game.”
For starters, the obvious reason the Golden Knights looked like such a better team than the Blackhawks: They are a much better team. The Golden Knights won the Pacific Division and steamrolled through the round robin to grab the Western Conference’s top seed. Sports books list them as a favorite to win it all. It would have been a major upset had they lost this series.
Chicago, meanwhile, wouldn’t have been a playoff team had the postseason not expanded. The Blackhawks were the 23rd-ranked team in the league at the season’s pause and were so convinced they weren’t playing beyond the regular season they traded Robin Lehner to Vegas and Erik Gustafsson to Calgary for future picks.
The Blackhawks were one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL, buoyed by strong goaltending in Corey Crawford and Lehner. They beat the Oilers, another poor defending team, by trading scoring chances and getting just enough goaltending to take advantage of the non-Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl portions of Edmonton’s lineup.
Then Chicago had to face the Golden Knights, who were maybe the worst possible matchup in the league. Vegas is one of the best offensive possession teams and don’t suffer depth issues Edmonton. Max Pacioretty and Paul Stastny only played two of the games healthy together, and Vegas didn’t seem to miss a beat. Ditto when Marc-Andre Fleury subbed in for Game 3.
The Golden Knights’ bottom-six forwards feasted on their Chicago counterparts, particularly the third line of Nick Cousins, Nicolas Roy and Alex Tuch. That trio generated more than 70% of the shot attempts when on the ice together, the only Golden Knights to eclipse that mark.
The Vegas stars also thrived. William Karlsson, for example, played the five games with five different linemates, but when he was on the ice Vegas generated 79% of the expected goals, by far the highest mark by any player in the series.
Karlsson may have only had three points (two came in Game 5), but Reilly Smith had six and Jonathan Marchessault had five. In Game 5 when Vegas needed big goals, there were Pacioretty and Mark Stone to bury the first and second goals to get the team going.
“You need that if you’re going to get to this point of the year in the playoffs — your best players have to be your best players and I think that was the case (in Game 5),” coach Peter DeBoer said.
The Golden Knights cleared the first round and it only gets tougher. Unless the favorites all win and Vegas draws St. Louis, the Golden Knights will face matchups that appear favorable.
Against Calgary and Vancouver all-time, the Golden Knights are 16-3-2. The Canucks are the final team against whom the Golden Knights have never lost in regulation.
That’s not to say either would be a cake walk in the second round. Vancouver has the foundational pieces at center, defense and goaltending that could make them a challenge for years, as well as potentially next week. Calgary’s offense can be terrifying when it gets going. Both could beat Vegas in a seven-game series, but neither would be favored.
Then there’s the Blues. The Golden Knights’ beatdown of them in the round robin notwithstanding, St. Louis has handled Vegas in their history together, with a 5-0-4 mark in the regular season against the Golden Knights. They are the last team the Golden Knights have yet to beat in regulation, though they won 6-4 in the round robin.
But no matter who the Golden Knights face, they’re going to need to score. They did so well enough against the Blackhawks, with 15 goals, or 3.00 per game, a hair worse than their 3.15 goals per game from the full regular season, and well off the 3.45 mark since DeBoer took over as coach in January.
In the playoffs, though, scoring goes down. Three goals per game would have ranked 17th in the NHL’s regular season, but is fourth among first-round series.
And besides, 15 goals scored in the series were pretty close to the 17.4 expected goals they generated, according to Natural Stat Trick. And those extra 2.4 goals of difference can be attributed to Crawford’s tremendous Game 4, where Vegas scored one goal compared to 3.7 expected. Had Vegas scored those extra two goals, we’d be talking about 3.40 goals per game, which would be second in the playoffs.
Crawford was the biggest reason the series went five games instead of a sweep, and the reason three of the Golden Knights’ victories were by one goal. After a shaky two games to start the series, he locked in the rest of the way, a classic example of a hot goalie doing everything he can to drag a team to victory.
The bad news moving forward is the opposing goalies are playing well. Journeyman Cam Talbot has found a home in Calgary and seized the starting job, playing to a .927 save percentage in the first round. Vancouver’s Jacob Markstrom has carried over a terrific regular season into the playoffs. Oddly, St. Louis is the team with goalie issues, though Jake Allen’s early returns have been good.
Vegas won’t know until at least Friday who it will face in the second round, but the Golden Knights are ready for the challenge. Chicago wasn’t at the level of team they will face the rest of the way, but the way they handled the bottom seed in the conference was encouraging. It shows the Golden Knights are ready for bigger challenges.
