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Raiders at Jets

Bill Kostroun / Associated Press

Las Vegas Raiders’ Nicholas Morrow, top, sacks New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold during the second half an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2020, in East Rutherford, N.J.

The 0-16 watch isn’t just heating up anymore; the lookout tower has become surrounded by flames.

The New York Jets are now in grave danger of becoming the third team in NFL history to go winless over a 16-game regular season. New York moved into a favorite to achieve the infamous feat with a loss to the Raiders in the final seconds two weeks ago, according to betting odds at local sports books.

But the line on the prop asking bettors whether the Jets would go 0-16 really skyrocketed after last week’s 40-3 loss at Seattle. The Jets are now -220 (risking $2.20 to win $1) not to win a game the rest of the year at Circa Sports, with a comeback of +190 on them finding a victory.

Their remaining schedule consists of a road game at the Los Angeles Rams this week, a home date with the Cleveland Browns next week and a trip to the New England Patriots in Week 17.

Adjusting for the house’s hold percentage, the line implies a 67% probability that the Jets join the 2008 Detroit Lions and 2017 Cleveland Browns. That seems a little high, but it doesn’t mean I’m ready to suggest a wager on the Jets.

No, I’ll just keep sticking to the point spreads here and hope for another winning week. My record picking every game NFL game against the spread this season stands at 113-92-3 after a 9-7 performance last week.

Read below for picks on every Week 14 game, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (34-29)

Seattle Seahawks -5 at Washington Football Team The mere chance that Dwayne Haskins could start for Washington makes this a must-play on Seattle. Either way, the Football Team have become overvalued by virtue of winning two straight games where they were outgained and didn’t play as well as the result indicated.

Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Chicago Bears Buy low on the Vikings, which have failed to cover in four straight but remain much more dangerous than the Bears. Minnesota was a 3.5-point favorite at Chicago a month ago and covered in a 19-13 win that wasn’t as close as the score implies from an efficiency standpoint.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5 at Atlanta Falcons The Buccaneers sit second in the NFL in raw expected points added and second in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Translation: They’re better than their 8-5 record and undervalued in the market. A buy order is still out for me on Tampa Bay.

Houston Texans +7 at Indianapolis Colts Houston was two yards away from beating Indianapolis two weeks ago at the end of the game in a 26-20 loss as 3.5-point underdogs. As well as the Colts’ defense has played, Deshaun Watson creates a clear matchup problem.

San Francisco 49ers -3 at Dallas Cowboys The 49ers outgained the Washington Football Team by 1.6 yards per play last week, and still lost 23-15 as 3-point favorite. It’s the story of their season, as their Pythagorean wins paints them almost as much of a 7-6 team as their actual 5-8 record and indicates they’re undervalued.

Leans (30-25-2)

New Orleans Saints +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs This would be a play if it creeps back over 3 as there’s not much of a gap between these two teams — possibly the two best in the NFL — by any efficiency metric. It’s terrifying to bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but also unsustainable for them to keep winning games by single scores as they’ve now done in five straight.

Cleveland Browns -3.5 at New York Giants First-year coaches mismatch alert — Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski ranks No. 6 in edjSports’ Coach Rankings while New York’s Joe Judge comes in at No. 31. The Giants’ recent four game winning streak seemed to be a result of good fortune as much as anything else considering they won all but one of them by less than six points.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers This was a harder call at 3.5, but there’s no reason it should have moved down to a flat field goal. If the Raiders can improve even marginally on defense, which they should under a new coordinator in Rod Marinelli, then they’re clearly the better team.

Guesses (49-38)

Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 at Arizona Cardinals I’d suggest waiting to see if a 7 becomes available, but the Eagles would be the only side I’m interested in. It looks like they may have found something in rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Denver Broncos +6.5 vs. Buffalo Bills I’m stubbornly sticking to my belief that the Broncos are one of the five worst teams in the NFL … and yet, this still feels like too many points. Denver’s offense has slightly improved and should be able to score on a continually and surprisingly mediocre Buffalo defense.

Detroit Lions +11 at Tennessee Titans This is a steal if Matthew Stafford plays through his rib injury, and even if he doesn’t, it’s far from a dealbreaker. Chase Daniel could have success against a Titans’ defense with the league’s worst pass rush.

Jacksonville Jaguars +14 at Baltimore Ravens Baltimore’s offense, ranked 18th in the league by DVOA, hasn’t been good enough on the season as a whole to lay two touchdowns to anyone. This might be a tougher call at less than 14 points, but luckily, MGM appears to be the lone sports book in the world sitting there.

Green Bay Packers -8.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Aaron Rodgers is now a highly profitable 106-86-1 against the spread through his career in the regular season. He defies the numbers, and unless a spread is really out of whack, I’m no longer interested in betting against him. This spread is not out of whack.

Miami Dolphins -2.5 vs. New England Patriots The pick would swap to New England at 3, and perhaps even be a play at 3.5. That’s how valuable these points are in what projects as one of the lower-scoring games left this season.

Los Angeles Rams -17 vs. New York Jets There’s very little action typically bet into spreads this large, and that’s for a good reason. Variance is amplified with this many points.

Pittsburgh Steelers -12.5 at Cincinnati Bengals Without Joe Burrow, it’s the Bengals, not the Jets, that are the worst team in the NFL. Cincinnati has been outgained by more than 1 yard per play in every game since Burrow went down.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at

Article written by #LasVegasSun