Steve Marcus/AP
Pre-game fireworks explode before the Las Vegas Bowl NCAA college football game at Sam Boyd Stadium, Saturday, Dec. 21, 2019, in Las Vegas.
Friday, Dec. 18, 2020 | 2 a.m.
The Strip and other resorts feel particularly empty this week, and college football is part of the cause.
A pair of opposing fan bases would traditionally be descending on the destination this week with plans on attending the Las Vegas Bowl. Instead, bowl season starts on Monday, and for the first time in 28 years, Las Vegas will not be a part of it.
The Las Vegas Bowl was one of several postseason games canned as part of this most-fraught college football season contested amid a global pandemic. It wouldn’t have been in its traditional spot this weekend anyway, but in a way, that makes its absence hurt worse.
The 2020 Las Vegas Bowl was supposed to be the start of a new era for the game, with SEC and Pac-12 teams squaring off at Allegiant Stadium in its first-ever post-Christmas date.
I guess there’s always next year, the same message I’m repeating to myself about betting on college football as this season continues to get away from me. Going into conference championship week, I sit at 205-229-4 against the spread picking every game that kicks off Friday or later — 37-41-2 on plays, 53-54 on leans and 115-134-3 on guesses. So close to the first overall winner in more than a month last week, I crashed on the night slate to finish 17-17-1.
Read below for this week’s picks, separated by conference and labeled with one of three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
AAC
Tulsa +14.5 vs. Cincinnati, over/under: 46.5. Cincinnati’s defense rates second in the nation in EPA (expected points added) per play. Tulsa’s inconsistent offense won’t be able to score enough points to keep up. Lean: Cincinnati -14.5.
ACC (27-40-1)
Notre Dame +10.5 at Clemson in Charlotte, over/under: 60. I’m hearing a lot of support for Notre Dame, so my real strategy here is to sit back and hope the number on Clemson drops a little bit. Either way, despite their loss earlier in the season, this is not a game the Tigers should have trouble with when they’re at full strength as they should be Saturday. Play: Clemson -10.5.
Florida State +6.5 at Wake Forest, over/under: 66. Contrasting results a week ago — Florida State crushed Duke 56-35 as 3-point favorites while Wake Forest got demolished 45-21 as 1-point favorites — has dropped this line a point or two. Based on the year as a whole, Wake Forest should be more than a touchdown favorite. Guess: Wake Forest -6.5.
Big Ten (21-23-2)
Nebraska -6.5 at Rutgers, over/under: 54. Rutgers has one more win than Nebraska this season — 3 to 2 — but it’s gotten outgained in every victory. The Scarlet Knights are now overvalued and haven’t beaten a team as talented as the Cornhuskers. Play: Nebraska -6.5.
Northwestern +20.5 vs. Ohio State in Indianapolis, over/under: 58.5. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is no dummy; he’ll slow the pace and increase the variance against a much more talented Ohio State side. If this gets to 21 or more, then the Wildcats become a play. Lean: Northwestern +20.5.
Illinois +15 at Penn State, over/under: 52. Number seems about right, but it’s hard to know what to expect out of Illinois under interim coach Rod Smith. Penn State, on the other hand, appears to have been on a mission the last few weeks to erase memories of its 0-5 start. Lean: Penn State -15.
Minnesota +12 at Wisconsin, over/under: 47.5. This pick might not be coming from the most rational perspective considering how often Wisconsin has burned me this year, but how could I lay 12 points with a team that usually can’t score 12 points? Guess: Minnesota +12.
Michigan State +2.5 at Maryland, over/under: 50.5. Not only have both programs battled with COVID-19 outbreaks but now players are opting out before the final game. With uncertainty on who will even be available, this is a real coin flip. Guess: Michigan State +2.5.
Big 12 (21-24)
Oklahoma -6.5 vs. Iowa State in Arlington, Texas, over/under: 58. For the first time in years, Oklahoma’s defense has looked suffocating over the past couple months. Considering the competition level, I’m not buying it; the Cyclones will be the best offense the Sooners have seen all season. Play: Iowa State +6.5.
Conference USA
UAB +5.5 at Marshall, over/under: 42. Marshall’s 20-0 loss to Rice as 24.5-point favorites its last time out is one of the most inexplicable results of the season. But it might be best to just throw out considering the Thundering Herd had already clinched their spot in this conference championship game, and if you throw it out, they deserve to be a bigger favorite against the Blazers. Lean: Marshall -5.5.
MAC
Ball State +13.5 at Buffalo, over/under: 67.5. Ball State is experienced and tough, but Buffalo has been so far ahead of the rest of the MAC this year that it hasn’t even played a close game. It’s hard to bet against the Bulls right now. Guess: Buffalo -13.5.
Mountain West
Boise State -6.5 vs. San Jose State in Las Vegas, over/under: 54.5. San Jose State has been a terrific story but it’s reached the conference championship game without facing any team anywhere close to as strong as Boise State. There’s a roster discrepancy here. Guess: Boise State -6.5.
Pac-12 (9-14-1)
Washington State +10.5 at Utah, over/under: 56. Utah’s defense has played well but hasn’t seen anything quite like Washington State’s version of the run and shoot. The Cougars are undervalued because they’ve lost two in a row both straight-up and against the spread but those defeats came to USC and Oregon, the two teams in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Lean: Washington State +10.5.
Oregon +3 at USC, over/under: 64. In all likelihood, it looks like this game will turn into a shootout, and in a shootout, it’s hard to trust Oregon’s defense. The Ducks are already giving up 7.1 yards per pass attempt and haven’t seen anyone near as efficient as the Trojans’ Kedon Slovis. Lean: USC -3.
Stanford +7 at UCLA, over/under: 59. UCLA ranks 49th in the nation in EPA per play; Stanford sits at 82nd. That’s a big gap, maybe big enough to justify a number of more than a touchdown. Lean: UCLA -7.
Arizona State -7 at Oregon State, over/under: 54. The Sun Devils showed a level of efficiency and explosiveness that the Beavers don’t have available in a 70-7 win over Arizona last week. There’s no guarantee they can keep it up, but this asking price isn’t too high in the chance that they can come close. Guess: Arizona State -7.
SEC (34-30-1)
Mississippi -1.5 at LSU, over/under: 78.5. LSU’s postgame win expectancy in its 37-34 victory over Florida last week by the SP+ ratings was 0.6%. In other words, it was one of the flukiest results ever and holds no predictive value going forward. Play: Ole Miss -1.5.
Alabama -17.5 vs. Florida in Atlanta, over/under: 74.5. Refer to the first sentence in the above game. This spread inexplicably rose 4.5 points based on a game where the Gators played poorly, sure, but didn’t deserve to lose. If it squeaks out a victory over LSU, Florida would only be around a 14-point underdog here. Play: Florida +17.5.
Texas A&M -14 at Tennessee, over/under: 51. The Aggies aren’t explosive enough offensively to command this large of a point spread. The only team they’ve beaten by this much all year is a South Carolina squad that was plummeting with injuries and opt outs. Lean: Tennessee +14.
Missouri -2 at Mississippi State, over/under: 49.5. Behind freshman quarterback Will Rogers, Mississippi State is on the rise. Behind a 35-point loss to Georgia where it was outgained by nearly 5 yards per play, Missouri is on the decline. Lean: Mississippi State +2.
Independents
Air Force -2.5 at Army, over/under: 37. It’s an advantage that Air Force got a week to rest while Army engaged in a 15-0 physical win over Navy, but a 2.5-point advantage? That feels like too much, as I make this game near a straight pick’em. Guess: Army +2.5.
Sun Belt
Louisiana-Lafayette +3.5 at Coastal Carolina, over/under: 55. Number seems right on, which is a little jarring with Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers’ numbers have seemed high all year, and they’ve covered anyway. Guess: Coastal Carolina -3.5.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
