Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller (83) carries the ball during the second half of a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Allegiant Stadium Thursday, Dec. 17, 2020.
Saturday, Dec. 26, 2020 | 2 a.m.
• Who: Dolphins (9-5) at Raiders (7-7)
• When: 5:15 p.m., Allegiant Stadium
• TV: NFL Network
• Radio: Raider Nation Radio 920 AM, KOMP 92.3
• Betting line: Dolphins -3, over/under: 47.5
When the NFL chose to slot this game as the primetime capper to a special Saturday triple-header, it likely envisioned two teams in the thick of the playoff race battling in a do-or-die affair. The league is getting something slightly less than that. The Raiders technically still have a chance to reach the postseason, but their probability has dwindled to less than 1%, according to numerous statistical models, after losing their last two games. Las Vegas now needs to prevail in its last two games and see Baltimore and Miami go winless. Even if they don’t make it, the Raiders could prove one heck of a spoiler. The Dolphins control their own destiny to earn the final of three AFC wild-card slots but the Raiders would take that away from them with a victory. It won’t be easy, as Miami arrives to town having won three of its last four. It’s also gone 6-2 overall since the starting debut of rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Favorable matchup: Darren Waller vs. Dolphins linebackers
Derek Carr is expected to return from a groin injury suffered in the first quarter against the Chargers, but it doesn’t seem to matter who’s throwing to Waller at this point. The Raiders’ 6-foot-6, 255-pound tight end has emerged as an undeniable superstar with the best three-game stretch of his career, helping him earn his first career Pro Bowl nod this week. He’s totaled 29 catches for 425 yards and three touchdowns in the span, catching passes from both Carr and Marcus Mariota. The Dolphins have been above average against tight ends this year, but Waller is no ordinary tight end. He’s lining up out wide and in the slot just as often lately as coach Jon Gruden looks to manufacture as many touches as possible for him. But the Dolphins have been susceptible to passes over the middle, ranking 20th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in the category, so the Raiders might be best served by letting Waller run short drags and curls against overmatched linebackers in coverage.
Problematic matchup: Raiders pass offense vs. Dolphins pass defense
The best part of the Raiders this season has been their pass offense. The best part of the Dolphins this season has been their pass defense. Something has to give at Allegiant Stadium. Las Vegas has shown it can throw on any team once it gets into a rhythm, but it won’t be easy to establish one against Miami. The Dolphins arguably have the best pair of starting cornerbacks the Raiders have seen all season in prized free-agent acquisition Byron Jones and breakout All-Pro Xavien Howard. Las Vegas reportedly tried to sign Jones this offseason before he agreed to a 5-year, $82.5 million deal with Miami. The former Dallas Cowboy has been decent but largely overshadowed by Howard, who leads the NFL with nine interceptions and may garner some Defensive Player of the Year votes. Carr, or Mariota, will need to be more careful about trying to fit throws into tight receiving windows.
• “My heart was ripped out of my chest to say the least. It was a hard night for me. It was a hard couple days for me to be honest, because with everything that has gone on with this team, I still felt even with all of that, we had a chance to win 10 games and try and make the playoffs.” -Quarterback Derek Carr on suffering a groin injury and exiting the game against the Chargers
• “I’ve been through everything, from injuries to surgeries to mental lapses and the confidence thing; I just truly appreciate the Raiders and the entire organization helping me through that. I was trying to find my way again and they gave me an opportunity.” -Quarterback Marcus Mariota on his return to the field last week
•“It’s pretty unbelievable. I honestly never really thought anything like this would happen. This was never my goal; I never had big goals or anything. … I’m just pretty speechless right now reflecting on life and everything I’ve been through.” -Tight end Darren Waller on making his first Pro Bowl
•“I know I’m a great player. I play hard. I go out there and I put it all on the line. I just play to win, play hard and aggressive and things happen like that. I know I have to get better and learn from it.” -Cornerback Trayvon Mullen on the four penalties he was called for against the Chargers and the resulting criticism
Gamebreaker: Defensive tackle Maliek Collins
The Raiders’ interior defensive line play was poor in the 11 games when Collins was healthy this year. It’s regressed to abominable in the last three games, which he’s missed with a shoulder injury. Collins came off of short-term injured reserve this week and is expected to play against the Dolphins. The Raiders’ coaching staff raised expectations on Collins heading into the season by calling the free-agent signing the “key” to the defense and received subsequent flak when he failed to make a noticeable impact in either his pass-rushing or gap-filling duties. But maybe now everyone is seeing what they meant; the Raiders are perilously thin at the position. And they still believe the former Dallas Cowboy can be the difference-maker they so desperately need. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli gave a glowing practice report on Collins this week, saying he’s going to get back to “the guy we had in training camp.”
Big Number: 1
Since the AFL/NFL merger, only one player the Raiders have drafted in the opening three rounds went on to play against them in their rookie season, according to Josh Dubow of the Associated Press. Lynn Bowden Jr. could become the second on Saturday, following fullback Ted McKnight, whom the Raiders took inthe second round of the 1977 NFL Draft before releasing him and allowing him to get picked up by the Chiefs. Las Vegas drafted Bowden in the third round, with the 80th overall pick, and intended to use him as the primary backup running back to Josh Jacobs. But Bowden, who played more snaps at wide receiver and quarterback at the University of Kentucky, struggled with the blocking aspects of the job and was surprisingly beaten out by veteran Devontae Booker. It’s virtually unprecedented to cut a third-round pick, so the Raiders managed to get something for Bowden by flipping him to the Dolphins along with a sixth-round pick in exchange for a fourth-round pick. Bowden is playing receiver for the Dolphins and has caught 18 passes for 159 yards on the season.
Best Bet: Raiders lead at halftime and win game +200
The Raiders are like a Reese’s peanut butter cup in this game — There’s no wrong way to bet them. That doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win; there are no locks in gambling. It just means they’re mispriced in the betting market. If you evaluate these teams on the season as a whole, and not just the last few games, they’re a lot closer than the current lines suggest. With an extra three days of rest off of a Thursday Night Football appearance, the Raiders should be the fresher team and buoyed by the return of most, if not all, of the starters who didn’t play against the Chargers. Look for Las Vegas to make an all-out effort to ensure at least a .500 overall record, an improvement they should lock up to snap a three-game home losing streak and finish 3-5 overall in its first season at Allegiant Stadium.
