ASSOCIATED PRESS
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) prepares to the take the snap of the ball from Kansas City Chiefs center Austin Reiter (62) along with Kansas City Chiefs guard Nick Allegretti (73) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Devin White (45) during an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 29, 2020, in Tampa, Fla.
Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021 | 2 a.m.
It’s been another strong NFL season for Talking Points, but the year can’t feel truly great without cashing in on the Super Bowl to bid farewell.
I’m 140-120-8 (46-35-4 on plays, 37-33-3 on leans and 57-52-2 on guesses) against the spread picking every game — right in line with last year’s 143-120-4 finish. I made a rule long ago that the Super Bowl side pick is always a “play” — the offseason is too long not to bet on the final football point spread — regardless of how tight the line looks.
The Super Bowl line is almost always tight. It’s certainly tight this year, at least at the vast majority of sports books that have settled on some sort of Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A big thank-you to Station Casinos and BetMGM for sticking on 3.5 to make the final pick of the year easier.
Super Bowl 55: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, you’ll have to pay -115 (risking $1.15 to win $1) to get this price on Tampa Bay locally at this point, but it’s worth it. Using this season’s data alone, there’s no justification for the Chiefs deserving to lay more than the key number of 3 points to the Buccaneers.
Notice I was quick to delineate with “this season’s data alone.” There is a way to statistically manage to come up with a spread of 3.5 points or more, but that would be by including the Chiefs’ efficiency from last season when they won their first Super Bowl in 50 years.
Kansas City was more dominant last season, and you could argue that’s worth factoring in. You could even compellingly argue it deserves to be factored in considering many people believed the Chiefs to be putting forth less than a full effort throughout this regular season and were instead saving their best for the playoffs.
Kansas City’s 38-24 victory over Buffalo as 3-point favorites in the AFC Championship Game helped make that theory more viable. By Football Outsiders’ DVOA, it was Kansas City’s best performance of the season — edging its 34-20 win over Baltimore as 3-point underdogs in Week 3.
But I’m still skeptical and not totally buying that the Chiefs have made like a Transformer and morphed into a wrecking unit for the postseason. And even if they have, there are some issues here that should be worth downgrading them slightly.
Most notably, losing tackle Eric Fisher to an Achilles injury against the Bills to add to what was already an injury cluster along the offensive line is damaging. Tampa Bay’s defensive front has been one of its biggest strengths all season, helping the team to rank first in the NFL against the run by DVOA and sixth in adjusted sack rate.
And that was without cornerstone clogger Vita Vea for all but six games. Vea returned and made an impact in Tampa Bay’s 31-26 victory over Green Bay as 3-point underdogs in the NFC Championship Game.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ mobility was noticeably limited against the Bills from a toe injury and there’s no guarantee his running ability will be fully restored against the Buccaneers.
Kansas City is also dealing with a strange travel situation, arriving in Tampa Bay only a day before the game as a coronavirus precaution. Homefield advantage hasn’t meant much all season in the NFL, but the Buccaneers getting to play at Raymond James Stadium after two weeks in their normal routine at home could provide a small edge.
I wouldn’t bank on any of this playing too big of a role, but it likely matters enough to be worth a half-point on the spread. Considering I make Kansas City a maximum 2.5-point favorite before considering all the aforementioned factors, I’m suddenly seeing more value on Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers don’t have the coaching or quarterback edge, but they’re arguably better in every other area. Because of some strange coaching decisions and a questionable penalty, they don’t seem to be getting full credit for the win at Green Bay from a public perception standpoint.
Make no mistake — it was highly impressive. The Buccaneers managed a 0.3 net yard per play advantage and pulled out a victory despite losing the turnover battle to a Packers team that had the NFL’s best offense this season. Tom Brady’s three interceptions were uncharacteristic, especially with the way he’s acclimated to his new offense down the stretch of the season.
The differences in how the championship-game performances were perceived has given Super Bowl 55 a, “buy low, sell high” feel. Don’t pay a premium on Kansas City off one good performance, as it was a consensus 3-point favorite over Tampa Bay in Super Bowl lookahead lines.
Betting against Mahomes always leaves you with the real possibility of feeling very stupid. He’s so explosive and invaluable that a blowout win is always within the range of possibilities.
I just think its likelihood is minimized in this matchup.
The same used to be true of Brady anyway. Betting against his New England teams was a recipe for disaster for two decades and he seems to have carried some of the defy-the-odds spirit to Tampa Bay, which has gone 11-8 against the spread this season.
That means the betting market hasn’t quite priced the Buccaneers right all year, and it looks like it’s making the same mistake one last time. Get ready for a close game, closer than the odds suggest.
Chiefs 36, Buccaneers 35.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
