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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) prepares to the take the snap of the ball from Kansas City Chiefs center Austin Reiter (62) along with Kansas City Chiefs guard Nick Allegretti (73) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Devin White (45) during an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 29, 2020, in Tampa, Fla.
Thursday, Feb. 4, 2021 | 2 a.m.
There are no absolutes when it comes to gambling on the thousands of Super Bowl proposition wagers, but a general rule of thumb is that it’s wiser to bet “no” and “under” on either/or and over/under bets. The house often implements upcharges on the “yes” and “over” sides, because most bettors don’t like to wager on things not happening in the game. They don’t want to wager on things not happening, because it’s usually more fun to root for big plays and wild action.
But that shouldn’t be an absolute. It’s quite possible to find “no” and “under” betting options that both hold value and are fun to cheer on.
We dug through the 36 pages(!) of props at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to find six such bets for this year’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Will the game be tied after 0-0? No at -105 (risking $1.05 to win $1)
• Why it’s a good bet: The over/under on the game is 56.5 points—third highest in Super Bowl history. More points mean more potential score variations. For example, a 7-7 tie is far more statistically probable in a game with 42 projected points than one with 56.5 projected points. Some see two evenly matched teams and assume the game will be close throughout, but it doesn’t usually play out that way.
• Why it’s fun: Again, points aren’t a detriment to this wager. They’re a benefit. This is a cheaper way than the over/under to cheer for a shootout—albeit one with slightly staggered scoring patterns.
Longest field goal made: Under 46.5 yards at -110
• Why it’s a good bet: Both the Chiefs’ Andy Reid and the Buccaneers’ Bruce Arians are more aggressive decision-makers than the average NFL coach. They know it’s going to take a lot of points to win a championship, so they aren’t going to settle for long field goals, figuring drives need to end in touchdowns to maximize their teams’ win probability.
• Why it’s fun: With respect to the Chiefs’ Harrison Butker and the Buccaneers’ Ryan Succop, no one’s tuning into the Super Bowl to watch kicking feats. Offense is more thrilling than special teams.
Chiefs total sacks: Under 1.5 at +120 (risking $1 to win $1.20)
• Why it’s a good bet: Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is 43 years old but still gets the ball out quickly—both on completions and incompletions. Brady is clearly wary of taking hits at this point of his career and doesn’t hesitate to throw the ball away in a hurry to avoid a sack. The Buccaneers are third in the NFL in opponent sack rate, with Brady only going down on 3.5% of snaps.
• Why it’s fun: This is the best way to wager on the one local in this year’s Super Bowl—Buccaneers backup offensive lineman John Molchon. The undrafted rookie free agent was a standout at Faith Lutheran High and Boise State before making the Tampa Bay practice squad this year. It’s unlikely he’ll be active in the Super Bowl, but he’s at least played a role in building the Buccaneers’ offensive line all season.
Will Tom Brady throw an interception? No at +140
• Why it’s a good bet: The number is inflated after Brady threw three interceptions in the NFC Championship Game at Green Bay. He didn’t commit a turnover in either of Tampa Bay’s other two playoff games and has significantly cut down on interceptions over the second half of the season as he’s become comfortable in his new team’s offense.
• Why it’s fun: It feels like a foregone conclusion that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will have a big game. Brady, who has been comparatively more erratic this season, will need to match Mahomes’ sharpness to ensure the most competitive game possible. This is a way to bet on him doing so.
Antonio Brown receiving yards: Under 53.5 at -110
• Why it’s a good bet: This would be a fair price if Brown was 100% healthy, but he’s not. He missed the NFC Championship Game with a meniscus injury, and he’s unlikely to be back at full strength for the Super Bowl. Brown will likely play but in a limited capacity.
• Why it’s fun: No self-respecting Raiders fan can possibly want to see the former All-Pro receiver succeed on the sport’s biggest stage. Brown’s tenure with the Raiders was controversial and disastrous, leading to his release before ever playing a game with the franchise during 2019’s training camp.
Darrel Williams rushing yards: Under 32.5 at -110
• Why it’s a good bet: With Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell also getting snaps, the Chiefs’ running back situation is a quagmire. All three will split carries, and there might not be many to go around in the first place. Kansas City has rarely run the ball against strong rushing defenses this season, and Tampa Bay rates No. 1 against the run in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.
• Why it’s fun: Another pro-Raiders angle, the surest path to victory for this prop would be if the Chiefs were running out the clock with a large lead in the fourth quarter. No fan of the silver and black wants to stomach the archrival Chiefs becoming the first back-to-back Super Bowl winners in 16 years.
This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
