Sam Morris/Las Vegas News Bureau
One of Denny Hamlin’s crew members checks tire wear during the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series – South Point 400 at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway Sunday, September 15, 2019, in Las Vegas, NV. Martin Truex Jr. took the checkered flag for the second time in Las Vegas.
Saturday, June 26, 2021 | 2 a.m.
Five loose lug nuts contributed to a banner performance for the column last weekend.
Chase Elliott initially finished second in NASCAR’s Cup race in Nashville and therefore beat Denny Hamlin in our chosen head-to-head matchup, but he failed his post-race inspection because of the lug nuts. Not all sports books wait for inspection to grade bets but most in Las Vegas, including the SuperBook where this wager was placed, do so the news literally turned a defeat into a victory.
That’s the type of break where you know luck is on your side.
The win improved last week’s column to 4-1, or 5-1 including a previously-placed, high-priced wager on the Clippers to come back and beat the Jazz in their playoff series. It was a much-needed big boost to the bottom line after more than a month of declining results.
I’ll try to harness the momentum and keep it going this week by spanning the sports world for bets in virtually everything going on.
Read this week’s column below. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.
PGA Tour (12-8, $222.07): Bubba Watson -115 vs. Jason Day in third round of Travelers Championship (William Hill)
Bubba Watson points to his tee shot on the ninth hole during the second round of the Masters golf tournament Friday, April 11, 2014, in Augusta, Ga.
Yes, these two big names head into the weekend atop the leaderboard in Cromwell, Conn., at the Travelers. No, it’s not 2015. That was when Day and Watson were jockeying for position at the very top of the World Golf Rankings, a form they seemed to have regained through 36 holes at TPC River Highlands. It’s a bigger surprise to see Day in this position. Watson has been trending in the right direction all year, and this course is second to only Augusta National as the track he’s most known for. Watson is going for his fourth win here with the most recent coming in 2018. He’ll almost certainly be in contention all weekend and Day could too, though he feels more volatile. Back problems have continually hindered Day for the last few years, and even as he threatened the course record on Friday with an 8-under, they seemed to be bothering him. More golf could only make it worse, so it’s a good bet to go with the healthier player who’s also been performing better.
MLB (6-4, $152.48): New York Yankees +105 at Boston Red Sox (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
The Yankees’ process and profile don’t match their results. It’s not going to stay that way forever. There’s been a lot of overreaction to their relatively mediocre 40-34 start, which should be expected when it comes to the Yankees, but the season isn’t even halfway completed. They’re the most talented team in the American League and it’s going to play out over time. New York has gotten a lot out of its pitching staff — including today’s starter Jordan Montgomery — but offense has been the problem some say can’t be solved. That’s overdramatic, however, considering New York leads baseball with a hard hit percentage of 43%. Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox starter today, has suppressed his hard-hit numbers this season but he’s not any better than Montgomery and he’s got a tough matchup here. The Yankees’ offense is about to come alive.
NASCAR (13-15, -$77.94): Denny Hamlin -130 vs. Kevin Harvick head-to-head in Pocono 325 (SuperBook)
For the second straight year, NASCAR is holding a Cup series doubleheader at the Tricky Triangle. Last year, Hamlin and Harvick split the weekend with a win apiece but they’re going in divergent directions this season. Hamlin has been one of the best drivers while Harvick has lacked speed consistently. This line should be -150, if not higher. Hamlin should be able to cash this one without the assistance of loose lugnuts.
NBA (13-9, $913.37): Los Angeles Clippers Even money on the moneyline vs. Phoenix Suns in Game 4 (BetMGM)
Former Toronto Raptors and now Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard salutes the crowd as he receives his 2019 NBA championship ring prior to an NBA basketball game, Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2019, in Toronto.
Get out of here. That was my reaction to seeing a “+” next to the Clippers in any fashion here, even if it’s only +100. Yes, Los Angeles trails Phoenix 2-1 in the Western Conference semifinals but the Clippers have been the better team the majority of the time. Through 12 quarters, they’ve outscored the Suns by seven points despite having played two of the three games on the road and without their best player in Kawhi Leonard. They’re probably going to be playing without Leonard again today, but it’s not been confirmed as of publication time and reports all over the place. Imagine how far this line will swing if Leonard is ruled in. The Clippers came through for me last round, and I’m not ready to abandon them yet.
UFC (11-13, $30.93): Shavkat Rakhmonov by KO/TKO +190 vs. Michel Prazeres at UFC Fight Night (BConnected Sports)
If the 26-year-old Rakhmonov is as strong of a prospect as some are indicating, then he should be able to knock out the 39-year-old Prazeres. This bet is as simple as that. Prazeres is a veteran grappler who’s returning after a two-year drug suspension. The UFC has done him no favors in his return by pairing him against a bigger, stronger and quicker opponent. Prazeres has never been finished and maybe this isn’t where he starts to lose his durability, but at this high of a price, it’s worth a shot.
Soccer (6-5, $38.23): Belgium +150 in 90 minutes + extra time only vs. Portugal (South Point)
I’ll take Belgium’s storied-but-aging attack over Portugal’s storied-but-aging backline in the first can’t-miss match of Euro 2020’s knockout stage. Quality-wise, this is a pairing that should take place further down the line in the tournament but the draw didn’t allow for it. That’s a shame for the defending champions in Portugal. The Cristiano Ronaldo-led squad still seems to be getting an odds boost from that performance from five years ago but it’s not the same team. Belgium was far more impressive than Portugal during the group stage, albeit with a much weaker slate of opponents. It will meet its match soon — perhaps next round in a potential matchup with Italy — but it’s hard to see Portugal slowing down Belgium’s offense enough on Sunday.
Weekend wagers column year to date: 147-142, $3,270.17
Previous pending future wagers: Brooklyn Nets to win NBA Finals +505; Milwaukee Bucks to win NBA Finals +745; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament; France 6-to-1 to win Euro 2020
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
