Conor McGregor arrives at the UFC 264 ceremonial weigh-in at T-Mobile Arena Friday, July 9, 2021.
Saturday, July 10, 2021 | 2 a.m.
For what feels like the first time in a long time, Las Vegas is undeniably in the spotlight of the sports world tonight.
UFC 264 is doing massive business, but not only at T-Mobile Arena and via pay-per-view. It’s going to be just as much of a smash at sports books.
I looked ahead to the main event in last week’s column, taking a -110 price on Conor McGregor to beat Dustin Poirier in what now looks like a bad bet. The market has moved in the opposite direction with McGregor now available at as high as +120.
I still don’t hate my position on McGregor, but to celebrate the card, I’ll lock in two more plays this week and hope they result in better value. Plays in four other sports could make this the second straight fruitful weekend in the column, as I just narrowly missed the sweep last week at 4-1.
Read this week’s column below. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.
MLB (7-5, $221.85): San Diego Padres -162 vs. Colorado Rockies (William Hill)
File this under, “high price to pay, but one that should be even higher.” The Rockies are historically bad on the road this season and that’s unlikely to change at Petco Park — especially with this pitching matchup. The Padres’ Joe Musgrove has been outstanding, if not a bit undervalued by the betting market, all season. The Rockies’ German Marquez is a competent opponent but not one that should strike much fear in anyone. He’s often struggled with his hard hit percentage, and San Diego’s offense is fourth in the league in hard hit percentage. Don’t be afraid to lay high prices when the situation calls for it. This situation calls for it, as the Padres should end up closer to -200.
UFC (11-14, -$69.07): Stephen Thompson -150 vs. Gilbert Burns at UFC 264 (William Hill)
It’s Thompson’s striking against Burns’ grappling in tonight’s co-main event, and luckily, fights start on the feet. Thompson is an expert at keeping them there and Burns shouldn’t be the one to change that. All indications are that Thompson will be able to maintain his distance, making the fight a frustrating experience for Burns. The Sanford MMA product went on a heck of a run leading into a title shot against Kamaru Usman earlier this year, winning six straight. But that stretch is devoid of fighters with Thompson’s technical prowess. In fact, the last great striker Burns faced was Dan Hooker, whom got a knockout victory over him in 2018. This is a good matchup for Thompson.
UFC (11-14, -$69.07): Carlos Condit +170 vs. Max Griffin at UFC 264 (SuperBook)
The former interim champion’s odds are inflated because everyone knows the damage he’s taken over an incredible 19-year career and considers him on the downside. That’s all true, but Griffin is no rabid young prospect either. He’s 35-years-old himself, only two years younger than Condit. And while Griffin may not have been through the wars that Condit has, he also hasn’t faced anywhere near the competition. This should be a close fight, and in that scenario, I’ll take the more battle-tested fighter who’s consistently shown he can hang with the best in the world.
Soccer (8-6, $198.23): Italy to advance/win Euro Cup 2020 +102 vs. England (BConnected Sports)
Italy has survived two straight teams (Belgium and Spain) at least comparable to England if not better to reach Sunday’s final match. England hasn’t encountered a single team as efficient as Italy on its path. Some may argue Germany, but while talented, it was an older team worn out from this year’s condensed schedule after the pandemic interruption. Italy is every bit as talented as Germany, but younger and fresher. The Italians also got an extra day of rest going into this match and have compiled the better underlying numbers throughout the tournament. It’s going to be a close game, one that may even go to penalty kicks but that’s another area where Italy projects to have the advantage. Italy has too many edges to not expect it to keep England from winning a major international competition for the 55th straight year.
NASCAR (14-16, -$101.02): Alex Bowman +110 vs. Ryan Blaney head-to-head in Quaker State 400 (SuperBook)
Blaney won in the NASCAR Cup Series’ first trip to Atlanta Motor Speedway this year, but Bowman’s car was just as fast. And it’s been much faster ever since. Hendrick Motorsports is dominating NASCAR this year, and Bowman sometimes feels like the forgotten driver behind current juggernaut Kyle Larson, road-course dominator Chase Elliott and tantalizing up-and-comer William Byron. But Bowman has been better than all of them on high tire-wear tracks and Atlanta fits the bill. Bowman finished third in the last Atlanta race; don’t be surprised if he wins this time around.
NBA (15-10, $833.37): Milwaukee Bucks +4 vs. Phoenix Suns in Game 3 of NBA Finals (STN Sports)
The Bucks went 9-for-31 from the 3-point line in Game 2. That can’t last, right? At least that’s what I’ll keep telling myself. It’s hard not to be underwhelmed by Milwaukee’s performances in the first two games at Phoenix, sans Giannis Antetokounmpo feasting on a bad knee, but also important to remember it’s only two games. The Bucks can still make this series. They have the pieces to frustrate the Suns. It’s just going to take some better shooting, or maybe just better luck. Based on Shot Quality’s analytics, the Bucks got much better looks than the Suns and were expected to win Game 2 88% percent of the time. Let’s root for some positive regression on Milwaukee’s side.
Weekend wagers year to date: 154-146, $3,413.42
Previous pending wagers: Conor McGregor-110 vs. Dustin Poirier; Milwaukee Bucks to win NBA Finals +745; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament;
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
