Rejuvenated Raiders must get over Chiefs hump to keep dim playoff hopes alive

Wade Vandervort

Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs the ball during the first half of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, Dec. 25, 2023 | 2 a.m.

One down, three to go.

This season’s Las Vegas Raiders entered last week’s game needing to replicate the year-end run of the franchise’s 2021-2022 team by winning each of their last four games to have any chance of reaching the postseason. They responded emphatically by setting a franchise scoring record in a 63-21 pummeling of the Los Angeles Chargers.

The hardest test comes now, in the Raiders’ third-ever Christmas Day game. They lost the previous two, to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2004 and the Philadelphia Eagles in 2017, but can’t afford any slip-up now.

Beyond their diminished playoff hopes, the Raiders are also just desperate to knock off their archrivals and defending Super Bowl champions. Kansas City has beaten Las Vegas in six straight meetings after a 31-17 victory at Allegiant Stadium in Week 12. That’s the longest losing streak in the rivalry since 2003-2007 when the Chiefs beat the Raiders nine straight times. Included in that run was the 2004 game on Christmas at Arrowhead that saw the Chiefs kick a game-winning field goal inside the final minute to win 31-30. Far fewer points are expected this time around in Kansas City, with the forecast calling for rain and wind throughout the AFC West showdown.

Favorable matchup: Josh Jacobs vs. Chiefs’ rush defense

Three of the Raiders’ six losses to the Chiefs since moving to Las Vegas have been competitive, and there’s been a common thread in all those games: Kansas City has gotten gashed by Jacobs. The All-Pro running back is often regarded as a Denver Bronco killer, even jokingly by himself, but he’s been just as effective against Kansas City recently. Las Vegas took a 14-0 lead on Kansas City last month, which was reminiscent of last year’s early 17-0 edge at Arrowhead. Jacobs spurred both early onslaughts with big plays and scores, including a 63-yard touchdown run on the Raiders’ third drive earlier this year. The Chiefs held Jacobs more in check from there, but he still finished with 24 touches for 125 yards. The last time at Arrowhead, Jacobs banked 26 touches for 193 yards. Las Vegas will beat Kansas City eventually if Jacobs keeps posting statistical lines that look like those two, and he might be well set up to do so today. Jacobs should be fresh after missing his first game of the past two years against the Chargers. He suffered a quad injury in a 3-0 loss to the Vikings two games ago, but it’s considered minor, and he was almost cleared to return against the Chargers. Las Vegas could continue to rotate in Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah against the Chiefs, but interim coach Antonio Pierce has declared it’s still primarily “the Josh Jacobs Show.”

Problematic matchup: Travis Kelce vs. Raiders’ pass defense

The Chiefs may have struggled to slow Jacobs in recent matchups, but the Raiders have looked incapable of stopping the star tight end. The 34-year-old Kelce by his own admission hasn’t been his best in his 11th NFL season this year. He doesn’t have the same burst, elusiveness or durability as he did in his prime. No one would know if they only watched him against the Raiders, though. Kelce was his usual nuisance to Las Vegas at Allegiant Stadium, catching six passes for 91 yards and leading a comeback that saw the Chiefs outscore the Raiders 31-3 over the final two and a half quarters. He also one-upped Jacobs at Arrowhead last year, scoring four touchdowns to allow the Chiefs to escape with a 30-29 victory. Las Vegas’ defense is highly improved and rates in the top half of the league by most metrics since Pierce took over six games ago, but it still has a hole in the middle of the field against opposing passing games. The Raiders rank 23rd in the NFL in defending tight ends per the DVOA ratings. Kelce might not be what he once was, but he remains one of the most dangerous tight ends in the game. And he always seems to find another gear against the Raiders.

Gamebreaker: Cornerback Jack Jones

It’s only been three games, but it might not be too early to declare that the Raiders got a steal when they claimed Jones off waivers from the New England Patriots. New England reportedly released Jones because of character and attitude concerns, not his ability on the field. Having coached Jones previously in high school (at Long Beach Poly High in California) and as a college assistant (at Arizona State), Pierce vouched for him and said the 26-year-old could turn around his career in the right environment. It sure looks like Jones has found it with the Raiders. He’s been affable in the locker room and electric on the field, creating a kinship with his teammates and emerging as the Raiders’ best cornerback despite learning defensive coordinator Patrick Graham’s scheme on the fly. Pro Football Focus graded Jones as the top-rated player in the NFL for Week 15. He might have made the best-looking play too, a gravity-defying, one-handed interception he returned for a touchdown. The Chiefs’ receiving corps has been the team’s biggest weakness, and this won’t be an easy spot for it to get right. The Raiders’ defensive backfield may have been ripe for the taking frequently over the past few years, but that’s no longer the case with a new face in Jones leading the way.

Big Number: 73

It had been 73 years since a single team had eight different players score a touchdown in an NFL game before the Raiders’ annihilation of the Chargers last week. Rookie wide receiver Tre Tucker scored twice, but the Raiders’ other seven scores came from different players — Jones, White, Davante Adams, defensive tackle John Jenkins (on a fumble recovery), running back Brandon Bolden, wide receiver Jakobi Meyers and tight end Michael Mayer. The last team to get that many scoring contributors was the 1950 Los Angeles Rams. It’s now only happened four times in NFL history. Joining such exclusive company is not bad for a Raiders team that some feared had a dearth of big-time threats in the middle of the season. Las Vegas has received some criticism over the past two years for basing the offense too much around Adams and Jacobs, but the latter didn’t even play against the Chargers and the former was just one of many standouts. One thing to watch over the final three games of the season is whether the Raiders continue to be so well-balanced, or if the parade of playmakers was a one-off.

Best Bet (11-3): Isiah Pacheco to score a touchdown

The Chiefs’ second-year running back scored twice against the Raiders in November, but then went down with a shoulder injury the next week and underwent a minor surgery to repair the problem. He’s missed Kansas City’s past two games but is expected to return against Las Vegas. The absence has inflated his anytime touchdown price to the point that there’s now value, as it’s available at as low as -105 (i.e. risking $105 to win $100) odds. The Raiders are easier to attack on the ground at the moment, and the wet and windy conditions are more suited to employing a rush-heavy gameplan too. Pacheco had gotten at least 15 carries in four straight games before his injury, as the Chiefs have given every indication that they want him to play a large role in their offense. The opportunities should be there to score against the Raiders again.