It’s déjà vu for the Raiders in Indy as they cling to playoff hopes

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow (13) catches a pass ahead of Indianapolis Colts cornerback Kenny Moore II (23) during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Jan. 2, 2022, in Indianapolis.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The Las Vegas Raiders are hoping history repeats in the racing capital of the world.

The last time they were in the situation they find themselves in this year, needing to win their final two games to potentially get into the playoffs, they faced the exact same Week 17 task and succeeded. Las Vegas knocked off host Indianapolis 23-20 on Jan. 2, 2022, to set up a winner-gets-in showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers at Allegiant Stadium, where it ultimately prevailed.

Two years later, the Raiders are looking to stay alive ahead of a Week 18 home game against the Denver Broncos.

A pair of heroes from the 2021 victory against the Colts are still on the roster in running back Josh Jacobs — who had 80 yards on 20 touches — and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow — who had a fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown and then a long reception to seal the game.

Jacobs was listed as doubtful Friday after missing the past two games. Renfrow hasn’t been as big of a part of the offense this year but could be in a good spot to get more work against a Colts team that hasn’t defended slot receivers well on the year.

Favorable matchup: Raiders’ pass rush vs. Colts’ quarterback Gardner Minshew

The Raiders’ pass rush has officially gone from being one of the worst in the league a year ago to one of the best this season. Las Vegas’ pressure statistics are still in the middle of the NFL pack on the season as a whole, but over the past month, it’s fifth in the league with a 9.6% sack rate. Much of the upward swing is due to the emergence of edge rusher Malcolm Koonce, who leads the NFL with five sacks over the past two weeks. Koonce has consistently taken advantage of double-teams drawn by All-Pro Maxx Crosby on the other side of the defensive line. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ interior defensive linemen are also wreaking havoc, with the likes of John Jenkins, Adam Butler and first-round pick/converted edge rusher Tyree Wilson proving difficult to block. If the unit continues to produce at the same clip it has since interim coach Antonio Pierce took over, it’s bad news for Minshew. The veteran backup was thrust into a starting role when first-round pick Anthony Richardson underwent shoulder surgery early in the season. Minshew has been serviceable, if not above average at times, but he rates in the bottom five to 10 quarterbacks in the NFL in performing under pressure by virtually any metric.

Problematic matchup: Colts’ coach Shane Steichen’s creativity vs. Raiders’ defense

Another reason for the Raider defense’s ascent is the constantly shifting week-to-week game plans of coordinator Patrick Graham, but he might be meeting his match in the Colts’ first-year coach. Steichen has approached the Colts’ offense similarly, making tweaks on a weekly basis to keep opponents off guard. Sometimes, the former UNLV quarterback/offensive wiz goes run-heavy with Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, while other times he employs a quick-strike passing game directed by Minshew as the focal point. That means the Raiders have a lot of ground to cover in preparing for the Colts on a short week after playing another a road game at the Chiefs. The Raiders have taken extra satisfaction out of their two-game win streak coming against a pair of divisional opponents in the Chiefs and the Chargers, but there’s always a lot more familiarity with how rivals like those teams will proceed. The Raiders have now played the Colts in six consecutive seasons — going 2-3 before today’s game — but this will be the third straight matchup where the latter has a different coach. And because that coach is Steichen, the Raiders can count on facing some wrinkles that they weren’t expecting.

Gamebreaker: Tackle Thayer Munford

When a reporter recently asked Pierce which players’ improvements have impressed him the most since taking over as coach, Koonce’s name was the first to come out of his mouth. Munford’s was the second. The 2022 seventh-round pick out of Ohio State has started the past three games at left tackle with team captain Kolton Miller injured, and has arguably been the Raiders’ best offensive lineman — especially last week. Las Vegas smashed Kansas City up front, paving the way for a Zamir White breakout game where Munford’s draft classmate logged 145 yards on 22 carries. Munford’s role this week is a bit undetermined with Miller trending to be able to play a larger share of the snaps. Both Miller and right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor have been limited with injuries, but the Raiders can feel confident with Munford having to fill in for either of them. Even if they both play, Munford will surely be a part of a rotation and be on the field for plenty of snaps. It’s a luxury to have three above-average tackles, and the Raiders want to make use of it. They’ll need to against the Colts, considering defensive line is their strength — they rank fifth in the NFL with an 8.7% sack rate on the season.

Big Number: 68

That’s the number of penalties officials have flagged the Raiders for this season, the fewest in the NFL. The discipline they’ve shown is no small factor in the late-season run they’ve made under Pierce, who’s now 4-3 at the helm. Las Vegas has only eight penalties for 50 yards over the past two weeks, and the players are crediting Pierce. “He’s preached for guys to play fast, play with their hair on fire and play instinctually rather than playing scared,” wide receiver Davante Adams said. “I don’t really see anybody moving around timid out there like how it was before. That makes a huge difference. … If you’re playing as fast as you can, it’s going to be to your advantage and you’re not going to wind up with penalties.” It’s ironic that the Raiders have played more under control behind Pierce, who’s empowered players to be themselves and embrace “the Raider Way,” as opposed to fired coach Josh McDaniels, who was known for being more of a buttoned-up disciplinarian. Pierce is now considered the runaway favorite to land the full-time coaching job thanks to the win against the Chiefs. The historically low number of penalties for a franchise that’s traditionally ranked toward the top of the league is another number that strengthens his candidacy.

Best Bet (12-3): Jonathan Taylor over 73.5 rushing yards

The last time Steichen called plays against the Raiders was in the 2021 season, when the Eagles came to Allegiant Stadium with him as their offensive coordinator. Philadelphia fell into an early 23-point hole but fought back to make the game somewhat competitive with a 33-22 final score in favor of Las Vegas, because Steichen audibled to a run-heavy game plan out of halftime. That’s likely how he’ll look to attack the Raiders again. Las Vegas’ pass defense has been outstanding recently while its rush defense has been merely solid. The Raiders are definitely more exploitable on the ground. This is a discount price on the former Pro Bowler Taylor, since he only managed 43 yards in a loss to the Atlanta Falcons a week ago in his first game back from a broken thumb. Moss was expected to return this week from a forearm injury, but he’s been limited in practice and was ruled out on Friday. Taylor has more than 100 yards in all three career meetings against the Raiders and averages more than six yards per carry. Las Vegas’ problems stopping him may not be over yet.