ASSOCIATED PRESS
Saint Mary’s guard Aidan Mahaney, center, shoots while defended by Gonzaga guard Nolan Hickman (11) and forward Braden Huff (34) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, March 2, 2024, in Moraga, Calif.
Saturday, March 9, 2024 | 2 a.m.
Twelve men’s college basketball conference tournaments are already under way. Four more begin this weekend.
Welcome back, March Madness.
Las Vegas is once again the center of the action, and not just because of the city’s reputation as the sports betting capital. Five conference tournaments are once again scheduled to take place here, with the West Coast Conference already in full swing at the Orleans Arena.
I’m trying to get involved in betting every conference tournament this year. There are a lot of other college basketball games taking place this weekend in the bigger conferences, of course, but the thrill lies in getting in full NCAA Tournament mode by handicapping the single-elimination brackets.
So, as the linchpin of this week’s Weekend Wagers, I’ve got two conference tournament futures below. They are an appetizer of much more college basketball to come over the next several weeks.
Get the bankroll ready, and make room for it to grow on the hard floor.
Read on for this week’s version of the weekend wagers column. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Each sport has its own record with year-to-date performance tracked. Plays outside the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.
Golf (1-1, -$52): Hideki Matsuyama Even money head-to-head vs. Shane Lowry in third round of Arnold Palmer Invitational (STN Sports)
Hideki Matsuyama, of Japan, celebrates during champion’s green jacket ceremony after winning the Masters golf tournament on Sunday, April 11, 2021, in Augusta, Ga.
$200 to win $200
Lowry took a chunk out of my bottom line in a third-round matchup last week. That’s not going to change my opinion that he’s slightly overvalued in the betting market because of his recent tear. Matsuyama is on a run of his own, and it’s even more impressive. The 2021 Masters champion won arguably the biggest event of the year so far, the Genesis Invitational, and is now threatening to win arguably the second-biggest. He and Lowry are tied atop the leaderboard in Bay Hill, Fla., along with four others. But Matsuyama’s game sets up better to carry over through the weekend. Lowry was in this same situation a week ago and tailed off slightly over the final two rounds. He has an opportunity to right that here, but Matsuyama’s chances to ultimately win the tournament are stronger.
College basketball (2-0, $400): UMKC to win Summit League tournament championship at 6-to-1 (Circa Sports)
Former UNLV head coach Marvin Menzies reacts during his team’s game against UNR at the Thomas & Mack Center Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2019 in this file photo.
$100 to win $600
I don’t like the Roos. Don’t think they are one of the two best teams in the Summit League. Why in the world would I bet them then? This is all about the draw. And the price. The two aforementioned teams I rate ahead of UMKC and old Vegas friend, a.k.a. former UNLV coach Marvin Menzies, are both on the other side of the bracket — South Dakota State and St. Thomas. No. 2 seed UMKC therefore caught a break and should be favored to get out of its bottom half of the bracket. Then the Roos, which have won six in a row by the way, only need to pull one upset to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. They should be 4-to-1 at worst to come out of this tournament.
College basketball (2-0, $400): St. Mary’s to win West Coast Conference tournament championship at +125 (Caesars/William Hill)
$200 to win $250
Yes, I cashed on Gonzaga going on the road and smashing St. Mary’s in the last edition of Weekend Wagers. But the circumstances would be a lot different if they make their expected face-off in the West Coast Conference championship game Monday night at the Orleans. St. Mary’s, which had already wrapped up the conference title ahead of the last meeting, would have more incentive to win. Gonzaga has won 12 of 15 WCC tournaments since the event moved to the Orleans. The chances for St. Mary’s to prevail don’t come around all that often. The Gaels won’t want to let this one get away, not on the rare occasion where they might have the better team than their conference rival. St. Mary’s also has the slightly easier likely semifinal matchup — against Santa Clara — than Gonzaga’s path versus San Francisco. This line isn’t too out of whack, but I’d split the win equity down the middle and have both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s around Even money in this futures pool.
NBA (1-0, $300): Charlotte Hornets +5.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets (BetMGM)
$220 to win $200
The Nets are no longer in far higher different tier than the Hornets as the betting market is indicating. They’re now both simply two of the worst teams in the NBA. And Charlotte might be playing harder, as its team of misfits seems to at least be pushing despite the Hornets’ season having long been going nowhere. Charlotte is playing on a back-to-back tonight, but Brooklyn is in just as difficult of a rest schedule with a fourth game in six days. I only made this line Brooklyn -3.5, and don’t think there’s much reason to justify the pricier oods. The Nets are overvalued.
NHL (1-1, $0): New York Rangers -194 vs. St. Louis Blues (Boyd Sports)
New York Rangers center Vincent Trocheck and left wing Artemi Panarin (10) vie for the puck against Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Brayden McNabb (3) during the first period Friday, Jan. 26, 2024, in New York.
$388 to win $200
Yes, this is chalky. But I think it should be even chalkier. I price the Rangers closer to -200 in what looks like a beneficial spot with them playing at Madison Square Garden. New York has shown it’s one of the top teams in the NHL this year when playing its best, and that should be set up to happen this evening. The Rangers are coming off four consecutive rest days with the Blues having played twice since the last time the home team was on the ice. The Blues’ underlying metrics are also horrendous. Their true quality is beneath the 67-point season they’ve put together in the standings. I’m looking to fade the Blues as the season closes out, and this is a nice spot to do so.
UFC (0-2, -$420): Benoit Saint Denis to win inside the distance at -143 vs. Dustin Poirier at UFC 299 (STN Sports)
Dustin Poirier sits after losing via submission to Charles Oliveira in a lightweight mixed martial arts title bout at UFC 269, Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Las Vegas.
$286 to win $200
The 35-year-old legend Poirier still probably has some fights left to win in mixed martial arts. Just not here. And not against the next generation of world-class fighters. The 28-year-old St. Denis belongs squarely in the category. The Frenchman is riding a five-fight streak of finishes into tonight’s co-main event, and Poirier’s fate shouldn’t be any different. Poirier has gotten stopped in two of his last three fights and has historically struggled against pressure grapplers like St. Denis. The -220 price on St. Denis to beat Poirier outright has gotten a bit steep, but most of his win condition is in getting the stoppage. These odds haven’t adjusted accordingly, as there’s no way St. Denis shouldn’t be at least -175 to dispatch Poirier in a five-round fight.
NASCAR (0-3, -$600): Ryan Blaney to be the top finishing Ford in Shriners Children 500 at +175 (BetMGM)
$120 to win $210
Blaney is only four months removed from winning the NASCAR Cup series title at Phoenix Raceway. And there was nothing fluky about. He was significantly faster than any of his Ford teammates save for the since-retired Kevin Harvick. The same was more or less true in the first race at Phoenix a year ago where Blaney finished second to William Byron. Ford hasn’t gotten off to a great start to this season save for Blaney, who initially appeared to win at Atlanta before a photo finish awarded the victory to Daniel Suarez. Ford’s slow start may preclude him from winning at Phoenix this time around, as the odds price both Chevrolet and Toyota as more likely victors, but there’s no one else in the stable on his level at the moment. Blaney is the rightful favorite, but the odds should be even shorter than +175.
MLB (0-0, $0): Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 and Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 (Wynn)
$120 to win $2,400 on Skubal and $70 to win $2,450 on Ragans
Let’s start a Cy Young portfolio with perhaps the two most-hyped and hardest-throwing American League pitchers in spring training. I don’t necessarily love either the Tigers’ ace or the Royals’ ace but what I do like are these prices on them to take home the ultimate pitching prize at the end of the season. They are down to as low as 11- and 15-to-1, respectively, at other sports books. Wynn hasn’t responded accordingly to what looks like two highly-promising up-and-comers. I’ll be making more bets in this market in the months to come, but this is a great place to start with Opening Day less than a month away.
2024 Weekend betting column year to date: 19-18, $768.87
Weekend betting column all-time: 677-725-11, $32,049.87
Previous pending wagers: Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); South Carolina women’s basketball to win NCAA Tournament at +450 ($400 to win $1,800); Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); Arizona to win NCAA Tournament at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Xander Schauffele to win the Masters ($100 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Clippers to finish with Western Conference No. 1 seed ($200 to win $520); Florida Panthers to win Stanley Cup at 10-to-1 ($250 to win $2,500); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500)
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
