Elaine Thompson / AP
Saturday, Oct. 31, 2020 | 7 p.m.
This is a tough week in the NFL.
The market adjusted quickly and was left less exploitable, leaving me with fewer plays than at any other point this season. It’s important not to force anything on slates like these, even if it means carry a smaller card into kickoff than normal.
All that being said, the Sunday Sweats will not slow. It took some digging, but I’ve still got plays for all five categories as well as another prop to run tomorrow morning.
Read this Sunday Sweats column below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (6-4, $145.46): Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts under 50 (Stations)
The Lions’ defense has gotten significantly better since the start of the season. The Colts’ defense has been better than expected ever since the season started. These are now two undervalued units that should lead to these teams playing a lower scoring game than expected.
Two-team Teaser (4-3, $26.66): Tennessee Titans -1 & Las Vegas Raiders +8.5 -120 (William Hil)
Sports books must be tired of getting run over by traditional teasers because there aren’t many options available this week from a standard, Wong perspective. This one is close, though, and looks like a good consolation to me. I just don’t see the Titans losing to the Bengals in a matchup that looks great for them from practically every angle. Similarly, I can’t imagine Raiders at Browns not being close. It looks like a total toss-up, so getting more than a touchdown is juicy.
Moneyline Parlay (5-2, $776.26): Seattle Seahawks & Baltimore Ravens +146 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
I’ve picked, if not bet against, Seattle almost every week this season and I’m even having a difficult time understanding the huge move against it this week. Russell Wilson alone should give the Seahawks better than a 58 percent chance to beat the 49ers, as this current money line implies. As for the Ravens, it’s almost like everyone has forgotten how far ahead of the rest of the NFL they were last year. Off of a bye week, they might be about to issue a reminder.
Prop-hunting (5-7, -$237.17): Josh Jacobs over 73.5 rushing yards (William Hill)
Yes, I typically try to pick something from the Sunday Night Football game here but does anyone really want to be involved in Cowboys at Eagles? Didn’t think, so I’ll go to Las Vegas at Cleveland for second prop (check Sunday’s gameday preview for the other). This feels like the week Jacobs breaks out. The Browns are mediocre against the run and the Raiders are getting their offensive line back intact. I’ve cashed a Jacobs prop in three of the last four Raiders’ game, so why stray from what’s becoming a niche speciality?
Non-football play (4-3, $136.82): Thomas Detry -120 over Robert MacIntyre in Cyprus Open fourth round (Circa Sports)
This category seemed like a great idea when all the coronavirus-postponed sports were happening, and before I ever thought about how it would look when they all ended. Oof. Now I’m left with a betting board of sports or leagues I’ve lost track of or never followed in the first place, like golf’s European Tour. I do know that Detry has been knocking on the door and seems closer to a breakthrough than MacIntyre, who’s younger and still at an earlier point in his career. One stroke back of the lead, maybe today is the day the Belgian Detry picks up his first European Tour win.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 24-19, $848.03
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.