Duane Burleson / AP
In this Saturday, March 7, 2020, file photo, Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (27) talks with guard Donovan Mitchell, left, during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Detroit Pistons, in Detroit.
Saturday, May 29, 2021 | 2 a.m.
Sports books’ slow days of summer would be right around the corner in a normal year.
This year, they’re delayed if not outright nonexistent with the later-than-usual NBA and NHL playoffs barely having begun out of last year’s coronavirus-interrupted seasons. It can be exhausting from a betting standpoint, but also not something that should be taken for granted.
This late May, early June stretch of sports may never be repeated, so let’s take advantage and find value all across the board.
Read this week’s column below. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.
PGA Tour (11-7-2, $235.11): Justin Thomas -115 head-to-head in third round of Charles Schwab Challenge vs. Corey Conners (Circa Sports)
Justin Thomas watches his tee shot on the 17th hole during the first round of the PNC Championship golf tournament, Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, in Orlando, Fla.
To see Corey Conners in a virtual pick’em matchup with Justin Thomas….what a world. That’s really not meant as a slight to Conners, though it sounds that way. I’ve probably bet more on Conners than Thomas all-time, but that’s because they’ve always been priced in different tiers. Thomas is among the elite; Conners among those vying to one day get there. I’m not so sure that was an incorrect perception even though they’re now being priced as if they’re evenly-matched. Conners is in better form than Thomas as he seems to contend every week and even grabbed the first-round lead at the PGA Championship a week ago. But Thomas is still a lot better over a long-term sample, and I much prefer a long-term sample to influence my handicapping.
MLB (4-3, $99.16): Miami Marlins +135 at Boston Red Sox (William Hill)
Miami’s Trevor Rogers has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and the opening betting lines in games he starts haven’t matched his production. Now, in fairness, they’ve often been steamed closer to where they belong by game time and that might take place again today. But I’d still bet the Marlins at anything better than +120. Boston starter Nate Eovaldi has played well, but he’s not in Rogers’ class. The Red Sox have a big offensive advantage but these odds go too far in accounting for that. The Marlins should be no more than a slight underdog to the Red Sox with Rogers on the mound.
NHL (16-13, $821.79): Boston Bruins -165 vs. New York Islanders in Game 1 (BetMGM)
Yes, the Islanders beat the Bruins in five of eight meetings this year. No, it doesn’t matter now in a best-of-seven series to reach the NHL’s final four. Boston is a different team now than in all of the losses, healthier and equipped with one extra star in former Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hill. Given the Bruins’ huge talent advantage on their top two lines and the Islanders’ mediocre goaltending, this is a great matchup for the home team. I’m not thrilled about suggesting a bet that requires laying such a big price, but choices are limited today with only two playoff games. And, in all reality, this line should be higher and almost surely will close higher.
NBA (10-7, $564.42): Utah Jazz -5 at Memphis Grizzlies in Game 2 (STN Sports)
Throw out the Jazz’s Game 1 loss to the Grizzlies. Playing without Donovan Mitchell, it wasn’t representative of what should happen the rest of the series. It gave some false hope to the idea that Memphis can compete. It can’t. The Grizzlies may take one more game off of the Jazz, but it’s no guarantee. The Jazz were a wrecking crew when fully healthy during the regular season, far and away the most efficient team in the NBA. Count me among the majority who doesn’t necessarily think that translates to the playoffs and doesn’t expect them to win a championship. But it’s more than enough to take out a flawed, still-a-couple-years-away No. 8 seed in the Grizzlies. Utah should be giving at least six points in every game for the rest of this series.
NASCAR (12-12, $112.06): Ryan Blaney -120 head-to-head vs. Kevin Harvick in Coca-Cola 600 (William Hill)
Nascar Cup Series driver Ryan Blaney walks around a section of the new dirt track, Friday, March 26, 2021, at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tenn.
Team Penske has dominated intermediate-sized, 550-horsepower tracks like Charlotte Motor Speedway. Blaney probably isn’t the Penske’s best driver, but he’s arguably got the highest upside and fastest car. He should be a bigger favorite over Harvick, who’s struggled in the 2021 season. Harvick’s history as one of NASCAR’s best drivers is anchoring his prices too low when they should have swelled a little bit by now. Stewart-Haas Racing may yet figure it out this season but it hasn’t happened yet. Until it does, it will be a smart play to bet against its premier driver against elite competition — a category Blaney absolutely belongs in this weekend.
Previous pending future wagers: Brooklyn Nets to win NBA Finals +505; Milwaukee Bucks to win NBA Finals +745; Texas to win NCAA Tournament at 50-to-1; All preseason NHL bets; Toronto Maple Leafs -120 adjusted series price vs. Montreal Canadiens; Portland Trail Blazers -115 series price vs. Denver Nuggets
Weekend wagers column year to date: 137-131, $3,288.54
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
